Carlton Have Become The Masters Of The Honourable Loss

Until it all finally came crashing down, it really did look like everything was going to work out for Carlton. 

Going into half-time against Collingwood, the Blues were in control. They had the ascendancy, and suddenly a warm, fuzzy path beyond this one game presented itself.

The impending win would place Carlton in the thick of the finals race, and drag their arch-nemesis right back into it. 

Thoughts of a 'successful season' and being 'ahead of schedule' started to flicker.  

And then everything just stopped.

The Blues didn't implode or collapse, they just ceased to feature in the match. 

In the third quarter the tide started to turn against Carlton, and then in the fourth, Collingwood gradually rendered the game uncompetitive. 

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The first half was defined by Carlton's pressure and composure. Collingwood came to play, but Carlton's ferocity rattled them, with Jack Crisp, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Scott Pendlebury all making bizarre, uncharacteristic errors, plagued by Blue shirts in their heads.

Carlton forced turnovers with crazed intensity, then immediately flicked the switch with ball in hand to calm, surgical precision. From slow build-ups in defensive-50, with Collingwood set up in front of them, they were patient and incisive, using all the angles available to them, switching the play and then coming inboard, taking risks with their movement that weren't actually risks because the execution was so fine and untroubled.

Everything made sense for the Blues while everything was frazzled for Collingwood. 

The Pies doubted themselves all across the ground, numerous times bizarrely not pulling the trigger on shots at goal. Too many players would rise for a marking contest one time, then too few the next. Their movement was stunted - outside of Jamie Elliott's zip to escape congestion and the dash of Josh Daicos and Isaac Quaynor, the Pies had no creative outlets.

The Blues, meanwhile, looked ominous when they went forward, with Eddie Betts and Zac Fisher threatening to turn the game on its head. An eight-point deficit at halftime felt like a reprieve for Collingwood.

Then, slowly, the game changed.

The third quarter was a strange grind, where it always felt that Carlton were one moment away from breaking the game open, but Collingwood kept getting saved by a combination of desperate acts of individual brilliance on the last line and dumb luck. 

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Jack Martin had a chance to make Carlton's lead feel much more imposing heading into three-quarter time, but ill-advisedly passed up the shot. In the end, Martin's miscue may have been the turning point where Carlton's season started to burn.

Jack got moves pic.twitter.com/RY7pFEew3N

— Carlton Blues Fans (@CarltonFCBlues) August 31, 2020

In the second half, the game became messier and more tense, which suited Collingwood. It's not so much that Carlton wasted their opportunities as much as they just had no opportunities at all, with Collingwood completely starving them of the ball. 

Everything became a struggle and, partly by design and partly by forced adaptation, the Magpies have become experts at struggle. Taylor Adams started to dominate, and the Pies controlled clearances and contested ball, with bigger, more violent bodies in congestion, and also a bit more class in close. On the outside, Carlton were calmer, but on the inside Collingwood played with more power and decisiveness, and by the fourth quarter, the game was to be won inside.

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No Carlton player topped three clearances for the match, while Adams and Pendlebury had 13 between them. Adams amassed 17 contested possessions, while no Blue had more than Will Setterfield's 11.

The Carlton midfield has improved meaningfully this year, but there are too many players who just aren't felt. While the influence and spectre of Adams, Pendlebury and Elliott was present at every stoppage, with Crippshaving a down game there was no Blue able to make a defining impact. Setterfield, Ed Curnow and Marc Murphy all battle, but none break games open. Sam Walsh was Carlton's best midfielder against Collingwood, providing dash and metres, but he's not the inside force Carlton desperately need.

Blues second halves since the bye by quarter:
1.1
1.3
2.5
1.2
1.4
1.7
0.2
0.2

A massive concern. #BoundByBlue

— Carlton Blues Fans (@CarltonFCBlues) August 30, 2020

Elsewhere, the Blues are well placed.

Sam Docherty is a technician, Jacob Weitering is a mountain, and Liam Jones is an elastic tower. The three of them all rank in the top-30 in the league for intercepts per game, and combined with Kade Simpson's skill and composure, the Blues have ample weapons in defence. 

Betts's ageless menace combined with Fisher's youthful menace are a perfect complement to Levi Casboult and Harry McKay's work overhead along with Jack Martin's general dynamism. With Charlie Curnow back in the forward line next year, it will be an imposing group.

With a better midfield, the Blues could have been an imposing team in 2020. They've wasted too many games from winning positions - letting slip leads against Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, West Coast and Collingwood - and with those lost games has come, likely, a lost season.

Strides have been made. The Blues are no longer a push-over. They're a real team, and a good one. They can beat anyone on their day, but also get suddenly decimated at any moment by an elite midfield. 

On Thursday night against GWS, they will come up against another of the game's best midfields. Off a four-day break, with the last breath of their season, Carlton will have another chance to make something of the present, and not have to be content with a promising future.

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