Carlton Is More Likely to Make the 2023 AFL Finals Than Essendon

Carlton has a higher likelihood of making the 2023 AFL finals series than Essendon.

According to Stats Insider's AFL futures model, heading into Round 19, Carlton has a 62.5% probability of making the 2023 AFL finals, despite sitting in tenth position on the ladder.

Essendon has a 48.7% probability of making the AFL finals, which means the Bombers are more likely to miss the eight than make it, despite sitting in eighth position.

Stats Insider's AFL expert said Carlton's hot recent run of form, which has seen the Blues win four-straight games by 50 points or more, has seen the model reassess its estimations.

"Carlton's run of form, culminating in a 50-point win over Port Adelaide in Round 18, has seen the Blues' finals chances rise exponentially," he said.

"Even the most hardened Carlton fans would have thought this is another wasted Blues season, but our predictive model now has them more likely to make the eight than miss out."

It is a much different story for Essendon following its 77-point defeat to Geelong in Round 18.

Stats Insider's expert explained that while Essendon weren't expected to win against Geelong, the heavy defeat forced the model to reassess the Bombers' finals prospects.

"Essendon headed into the game against Geelong with a 51% probability of covering the +25.5 line," he said.

"With the final margin at 77, it means they were 50 points off where our predictive model believes they would have been. That causes the model to reassess Essendon's futures probabilities.

"While they have the second-best run home according to our AFL schedule difficulty assessor, the loss to Geelong was so comprehensive the model now thinks Essendon is more likely to miss now than make it."

Essendon next face the Western Bulldogs in Round 19 at Marvel Stadium.

2023 AFL Top Eight Probabilities

All probabilities and odds listed in this article are correct at the time of publication.

(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)