Carlton vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 22, 2024

Last updated: Aug 11, 2024, 2:50AM | Published: Aug 4, 2024, 1:33PM

Carlton will take on Hawthorn in AFL Round 22 action at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 1:10pm AEST.

This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Carlton vs Hawthorn game, along with the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.

Who Will Win?

Using trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Sunday's Carlton vs Hawthorn AFL match 10,000 times.

Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Blues a 51% chance of beating the Hawks in Round 22 of the 2024 AFL season.

Carlton vs Hawthorn: Odds

The latest betting odds for Sunday's AFL clash at Marvel Stadium are listed below:

Head to Head: Carlton $1.92, Hawthorn $2.06
Line: Carlton -1.5 ($1.96), Hawthorn +1.5 ($2.00)
Total (Over/Under 172.5 Points): Over $1.94, Under $2.04

Odds via Betfair are correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has Carlton at $1.92 and Hawthorn at $2.06.

The Blues are 1.5-point favourites against the Hawks, with odds of $1.96 available at Betfair.

For the underdog Hawks (+1.5) to cover the line, Betfair offers odds of $2.00.

The over/under for total points scored is set at 172.5 with Betfair, which has odds of $1.94 for the over and $2.04 for the under.

According to Stats Insider's model, the Hawks (+1.5) are predicted to cover the line 51% of the time, while the 172.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 57% of the time.

Carlton vs Hawthorn: Betting Tips

Head to Head: Hawthorn at $2.06 with Betfair (0.7% edge)
Line: Hawthorn +1.5 at $2.00 with Betfair (51% probability)
Total Points: Under 172.5 at $2.04 with Betfair (57% probability) 🔥

If you see a 🔥, that means you've found one of Stats Insider's best tips for today across any sport.

These Carlton vs Hawthorn best bets are based on detailed modelling and wagering intelligence to provide you with the best possible advice every day of the year.

While the Blues have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Hawks to win is our preferred option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.

Making use of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is crucial to being profitable in the long run.

Carlton vs Hawthorn: Prediction

Stats Insider's predicted score for Carlton vs Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium this Sunday is Hawks 84-84 Blues.

This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.

Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Carlton vs Hawthorn match on Sunday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.

Carlton vs Hawthorn: Goal Scorers

Are you looking for Carlton vs Hawthorn goalscorer tips? The data is in.

According to Stats Insider, Carlton's Charlie Curnow is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Carlton vs Hawthorn.

Curnow has an 8.0% chance of kicking the first goal at Marvel Stadium, while the Blues star has a 92.2% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.

Scroll down for our complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.

First Goal Scorer Tips

Carlton

Charlie Curnow: 8.0% probability
Harry McKay: 6.7% probability
Matthew Owies: 4.9% probability
Jack Martin: 3.9% probability
Jesse Motlop: 3.7% probability

Hawthorn

Jack Gunston: 5.4% probability
Mabior Chol: 5.1% probability
Luke Breust: 5.0% probability
Nick Watson: 4.6% probability
Dylan Moore: 4.4% probability

Anytime Goal Kicker Tips

Carlton

Charlie Curnow: 92.2% probability
Harry McKay: 87.3% probability
Matthew Owies: 75.3% probability
Jack Martin: 68.2% probability
Jesse Motlop: 63.7% probability

Hawthorn

Jack Gunston: 79.8% probability
Mabior Chol: 77.6% probability
Luke Breust: 77.0% probability
Nick Watson: 74.5% probability
Jack Ginnivan: 70.4% probability

Our model updates frequently, so bookmark this article for the latest betting analysis before the Carlton vs Hawthorn match.

As always, see our Best Bets to get the best tips for every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.

Carlton vs Hawthorn: Essential Details

The AFL Round 22 clash between the Blues and Hawks at Marvel Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:10pm AEST on Sunday.

Teams: Carlton vs Hawthorn
Date: Sunday 11 August 2024
Time: 1:10pm AEST
Venue: Marvel Stadium

All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.

Our Carlton vs Hawthorn predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.

If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.