Carlton vs Richmond Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 1, 2024
Last updated: Mar 14, 2024, 8:02AM | Published: Mar 10, 2024, 11:00PM
Carlton will face Richmond in AFL Round 1 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday, beginning at 7:30pm AEDT.
Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Carlton vs Richmond game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are featured below.
Who Will Win: Carlton vs Richmond
Based on advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Thursday's Carlton-Richmond AFL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Blues a 57% chance of winning against the Tigers in Round 1 of the 2024 AFL season.
More: Carlton vs Richmond Match Centre
Carlton vs Richmond: Odds
The latest betting odds for Thursday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown here:
- Head to Head: Carlton $1.50, Richmond $2.96
- Line: Carlton -13.5 ($2.00), Richmond +13.5 ($1.96)
- Total (Over/Under 166.5 Points): Over $1.92, Under $2.06
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has Carlton at $1.50 and Richmond at $2.96.
The Blues are 13.5-point favourites against the Tigers, with odds of $2.00 currently on offer at TAB.
For the underdog Tigers (+13.5) to cover the line, TAB currently has odds of $1.96.
The Over/Under for Carlton vs Richmond is set at 166.5 with TAB, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.92 and odds for the Under at $2.06.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Tigers (+13.5) have a 61% chance of covering the line, while the Over/Under total of 166.5 points has a 55% chance of staying Under.
More: Live Scores for All Sports
Carlton vs Richmond: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Richmond at $2.96 with (8.8% edge) 🔥
- Line: Richmond +13.5 at $1.96 with Betfair (61% probability) 🔥
- Total Points: Under 166.5 at $2.06 with Betfair (55% probability) 🔥
Every time you see a 🔥, you know it's one of our best bets of the day across any sport.
Our Carlton vs Richmond betting tips are based on world-class modelling and wagering intelligence to help you place smarter bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Blues have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Tigers to win is our recommended option because of the 8.8% edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently available.
Making use of the edges seen on Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term success as a bettor.
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Carlton vs Richmond: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Carlton vs Richmond at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday has Carlton winning 84-79.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider has full betting coverage of Carlton vs Richmond on Thursday, including pre-match predictions, top betting tips, and live win probabilities.
Carlton vs Richmond: Goal Kickers
Searching for Carlton vs Richmond goal kicker tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Richmond's Tom Lynch is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Carlton vs Richmond.
Lynch has an 8.2% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Tigers star has an 89.4% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Carlton
- Charlie Curnow: 7.9% probability
- Harry McKay: 7.3% probability
- Orazio Fantasia: 5.1% probability
- Matthew Owies: 4.8% probability
- Matthew Cottrell: 3.4% probability
Richmond
- Tom Lynch: 8.2% probability
- Shai Bolton: 4.9% probability
- Dustin Martin: 4.4% probability
- Noah Balta: 3.0% probability
- Tim Taranto: 2.8% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Carlton
- Charlie Curnow: 89.7% probability
- Harry McKay: 88.4% probability
- Orazio Fantasia: 76.5% probability
- Matthew Owies: 71.1% probability
- Corey Durdin: 57.0% probability
Richmond
- Tom Lynch: 89.4% probability
- Shai Bolton: 74.3% probability
- Dustin Martin: 72.5% probability
- Noah Balta: 53.6% probability
- Tim Taranto: 50.8% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so keep checking this page for the latest betting analysis before the Carlton vs Richmond game at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
As always, check out Stats Insider's Best Bets for betting tips on every AFL match, plus a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: AFL Player Ratings 2024
Carlton vs Richmond: Preview
The AFL Round 1 clash between the Blues and Tigers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 7:30pm AEDT on Thursday.
- Teams: Carlton vs Richmond
- Date: Thursday 14 March 2024
- Time: 7:30pm AEDT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) unless otherwise stated.
Our Carlton vs Richmond predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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