Carlton vs Sydney Prediction and Tips - AFL Finals Week 1 2023

Last updated: Sep 8, 2023, 9:32AM | Published: Aug 28, 2023, 11:42PM

Carlton plays Sydney in AFL Finals Week 1 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, beginning at 7:50pm AEST.

Stats Insider's best betting tips for Carlton vs Sydney, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are featured in this article.

More: Brownlow Predictor

Who Will Win: Carlton vs Sydney

Based on high-tech computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated Friday's Carlton-Sydney AFL match 10,000 times.

Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Blues a 63% chance of defeating the Swans in the first week of AFL finals.

More: Carlton vs Sydney Simulated 10K Times

Carlton vs Sydney: Odds

The current Betfair betting odds for Friday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown below:

Head to Head: Carlton $1.56, Sydney $2.74
Line: Carlton -12.5 ($2.02), Sydney +12.5 ($1.94)
Total (Over/Under 151.5 Points): Over $1.85, Under $2.10

Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has Carlton at $1.56 and Sydney at $2.74.

The Blues are 12.5-point favourites against the Swans, with odds of $2.02 currently available at Betfair.

For the underdog Swans (+12.5) to cover the line, Betfair currently has odds of $1.94.

The Over/Under for total points scored is set at 151.5 with Betfair, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.85 and odds for the Under at $2.10.

According to Stats Insider's model, the Swans (+12.5) have a 54% chance of covering the line, while the Over/Under total of 151.5 points has a 56% chance of going Over.

More: AFL Premiership 2023 Probabilities and Odds

Carlton vs Sydney: Best Bets

Head to Head: Sydney at $2.74 with Betfair (0.2% edge)
Line: Sydney +12.5 at $1.94 with Betfair (54% probability)
Total Points: Over 151.5 at $1.85 with Betfair (56% probability)

These Carlton vs Sydney predictions are based on market-leading modelling and betting expertise to give you the best possible advice around the clock.

While the Blues have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Swans to win is our preferred option because of the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.

Making use of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is one of the keys to being profitable in the long run.

More: AFL Brownlow Predictor

Carlton vs Sydney: Prediction

Stats Insider's predicted final score for Carlton vs Sydney at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday has Carlton winning 82-72.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

For more information, click or tap See Matchup.

Stats Insider has full betting coverage of Carlton vs Sydney on Friday, including pre-match predictions, free tips, and live scores.

Carlton vs Sydney: Goal Kickers

Are you looking for Carlton vs Sydney goal kicker tips? The latest data is in.

According to Stats Insider, Carlton's Charlie Curnow is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Carlton vs Sydney.

Curnow has a 10.4% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Blues star has a 95.0% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.

Scroll down for our full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.

First Goal Scorer Tips

Carlton

Charlie Curnow: 10.4% probability
Harry McKay: 7.5% probability
Matthew Owies: 4.8% probability
Jack Martin: 4.7% probability
Patrick Cripps: 2.8% probability

Sydney

Tom Papley: 6.0% probability
Isaac Heeney: 5.7% probability
Logan McDonald: 4.9% probability
Joel Amartey: 4.0% probability
Will Hayward: 3.6% probability

Anytime Goal Scorer Tips

Carlton

Charlie Curnow: 95.0% probability
Harry McKay: 88.1% probability
Matthew Owies: 75.6% probability
Jack Martin: 73.9% probability
Matthew Cottrell: 53.3% probability

Sydney

Isaac Heeney: 78.6% probability
Tom Papley: 78.4% probability
Logan McDonald: 71.9% probability
Joel Amartey: 66.5% probability
Will Hayward: 61.7% probability

Our model updates regularly, so keep checking this page for the latest betting tips before the Carlton vs Sydney match at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

As always, check out our Best Bets for betting tips for every AFL match, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.

More: Brownlow Predictor 2023

Carlton vs Sydney: Preview

The AFL Finals clash between the Blues and Swans at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 7:50pm AEST on Friday.

Teams: Carlton vs Sydney
Date: Friday 8 September 2023
Time: 7:50pm AEST
Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise noted.

Our predictions for Carlton vs Sydney are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.

If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

More on the AFL

Stats Insider is your home for betting on the AFL, with the latest AFL betting news, tips for every AFL game, and futures odds for the AFL.

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.