Carlton’s Climb Up 2023 AFL Finals Probabilities Continues
Jul 31, 2023, 9:05AM
Carlton is the fifth most likely team to make the 2023 AFL finals series.
According to Stats Insider's AFL futures model, heading into Round 21, Carlton has a 80.4% probability of making the 2023 AFL finals after its 17-point victory over Collingwood in Round 20.
Carlton is paying $1.31 on the Betfair Exchange to make the 2023 AFL top eight, with an implied probability of 76.34%. This means Stats Insider still recommends backing Carlton to make the 2023 finals on Exchange.
Stats Insider's AFL expert believes it would now take a calamitous capitulation for Carlton not to make the 2023 finals.
"Since losing to Essendon in Round 13, Carlton has gone on a six-game winning streak and is currently one of the most in-form teams in the AFL," he said.
"Almost every game since that defeat, the Blues have exceeded the model's expectations and now are the fifth most likely team to play finals in the AFL."
MORE: AFL 2023 Run Home - Finals Contenders
It's been a strong turnaround from Carlton after a poor first half of the season which left the Blues left languishing in 15th position after Round 13.
However, the Stats Insider's AFL expert said that while the Blues took a while to regain the faith of the punters, the model was quick to back Carlton in to make the 2023 AFL finals.
"The model actually identified Carlton as a bet on the Betfair Exchange back when they were sitting outside the eight and paying over $4, and every week the Blues' odds have continued to shorten as a spot in the top eight looked more and more likely.
"The Blues are now starting to get in line with the model's expectations of where their price should be reflective to their chances of making the finals, but we still consider them at a backable price considering the $1.31 on offer."
Carlton next faces St Kilda at Marvel Stadium in Round 22.
2023 AFL Top Eight Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Collingwood Magpies | 100% |
| Brisbane Lions | 100% |
| Port Adelaide Power | 100% |
| Melbourne Demons | 100% |
| Carlton Blues | 80.4% |
| Western Bulldogs | 64.0% |
| GWS Giants | 61.0% |
| Geelong Cats | 52.0% |
| St Kilda Saints | 44.8% |
| Adelaide Crows | 32.0% |
| Sydney Swans | 28.9% |
| Richmond Tigers | 20.6% |
All probabilities and odds listed in this article are correct at the time of publication.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
