Chiefs vs Jaguars Prediction and Odds - NFL Divisional Round 2023
Jan 17, 2023, 1:50AM
The Kansas City Chiefs play the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 8:30am AEDT.
Stats Insider's best betting tips for Chiefs vs Jaguars, as well as the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips, are detailed below.
Who will win? Chiefs vs Jaguars
Based on state-of-the-art machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated Sunday's Kansas City-Jacksonville NFL game 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Chiefs a 79% chance of defeating the Jaguars at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
More: Kansas City vs Jacksonville Simulated 10,000 Times
Chiefs vs Jaguars Current Odds
The current betting odds in Australia for Sunday's NFL clash at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium are shown below:
- Head to Head: Chiefs $1.20, Jaguars $4.75
- Line: Chiefs -9.5 ($1.91), Jaguars +9.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 52 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, bet365 currently has the Chiefs to win at $1.20 and the Jaguars to win at $4.75.
The Chiefs are -9.5 favourites against the Jaguars, with odds of $1.91 currrently available at bet365.
For the underdog Jaguars (+9.5) to cover the line, bet365 currently has odds of $1.91.
The Over/Under for Jacksonville vs Kansas City is set at 52 with bet365, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.91 and odds for the Under at $1.91.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the bookmakers have got it right and both the Jaguars and Chiefs have a 50% chance of covering the line.
The 52-point Over/Under has a 54% chance of staying Under.
More: Super Bowl 2023 Probabilities and Odds
Jaguars vs Chiefs NFL Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Jaguars at $4.75 with bet365 (0.6% edge)
- Line: Jaguars +9.5 at $1.91 with bet365 (50% probability)
- Total: Under 52 at $1.91 with bet365 (54% probability)
Stats Insider's Jacksonville vs Kansas City predictions are based on world-class simulations and gambling experience to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Chiefs have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Jaguars to win is our recommended option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges published here at Stats Insider is pivotal to achieving long-term profitability.
Jaguars vs Chiefs NFL Best Bets
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Jacksonville vs Kansas City at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday has the Chiefs winning 30-20.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Click or tap on See Matchup to reveal more.
Stats Insider has full coverage of Jacksonville vs Kansas City on Sunday, including pre-match predictions, top betting tips, and live win probabilities.
Chiefs vs Jaguars TD Scorer Tips
Who will score the first touchdown in Chiefs vs Jaguars? The latest data is in.
The most likely first touchdown scorer and most likely anytime touchdown scorer for both the Chiefs and Jaguars, as well as player prop projections, are listed below.
According to Stats Insider, Kansas City's Travis Kelce is the most likely player to score the first TD in Chiefs vs Jaguars.
Kelce has a 13.3% chance of scoring the first TD at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, while the Chiefs TE has a 58.2% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.
Scroll down for the complete list of first and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Kansas City First TD Tips
- Travis Kelce: 13.3% probability
- Jerick McKinnon: 11.9% probability
- Isiah Pacheco: 10.0% probability
- Patrick Mahomes: 5.1% probability
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 4.7% probability
Jacksonville First TD Tips
- Travis Etienne: 9.6% probability
- Christian Kirk: 7.0% probability
- Zay Jones: 5.4% probability
- Trevor Lawrence: 5.4% probability
- Evan Engram: 5.1% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Kansas City Anytime TD Tips
- Travis Kelce: 58.2% probability
- Jerick McKinnon: 53.4% probability
- Isiah Pacheco: 46.4% probability
- Patrick Mahomes: 26.9% probability
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 25.4% probability
Jacksonville Anytime TD Tips
- Travis Etienne: 45.2% probability
- Christian Kirk: 36.1% probability
- Zay Jones: 29.6% probability
- Trevor Lawrence: 29.5% probability
- Evan Engram: 26.7% probability
Chiefs-Jaguars Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is projected to have a big game with 310 passing yards. The Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is expected to throw for 252 yards.
Chiefs Starting QB
- Patrick Mahomes: 310 projected passing yards
Jaguars Starting QB
- Trevor Lawrence: 252 projected passing yards
Chiefs Rushing Yards
- Isiah Pacheco: 48 projected yards
- Patrick Mahomes: 24 projected yards
- Jerick McKinnon: 17 projected yards
Jaguars Rushing Yards
- Travis Etienne: 74 projected yards
- Trevor Lawrence: 21 projected yards
- JaMycal Hasty: 9 projected yards
Chiefs Receiving Yards
- Travis Kelce: 84 projected yards
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 60 projected yards
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 32 projected yards
- Jerick McKinnon: 26 projected yards
- Kadarius Toney: 25 projected yards
Jaguars Receiving Yards
- Christian Kirk: 60 projected yards
- Zay Jones: 47 projected yards
- Evan Engram: 46 projected yards
- Marvin Jones: 35 projected yards
- Travis Etienne: 22 projected yards
Remember, our model updates regularly, so refresh this page for the latest expert analysis before the Jacksonville vs Kansas City game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
As always, check out our Value Summary for the best tips for every NFL match, plus a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
Chiefs vs Jaguars NFL 2023
Sunday's action between the Chiefs and Jaguars at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:30am AEDT on Sunday.
- Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars
- Playoff Round: NFL Divisional Round
- Date: Sunday 22 January 2023
- Time: 8:30am AEDT
- Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) unless otherwise noted.
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