Chiefs vs Texans Prediction and Preview - NFL Divisional Round 2025
Last updated: Jan 16, 2025, 12:50PM | Published: Jan 14, 2025, 8:50AM
The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 8:30am AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Chiefs vs Texans game, plus the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Sunday's Kansas City vs Houston NFL match-up 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Chiefs a 77% chance of beating the Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Chiefs vs Texans: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Sunday's NFL game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium are shown here:
- Head to Head: Chiefs $1.20, Texans $4.75
- Line: Chiefs -8.5 ($1.91), Texans +8.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 41.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Chiefs at $1.20 and the Texans at $4.75.
The Chiefs are 8.5-point favourites against the Texans, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Texans (+8.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 41.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Texans (+8.5) are predicted to cover the line 57% of the time, while the 41.5-point over/under is expected to is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Chiefs vs Texans: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Houston at $4.75 with Bet365
- Line: Texans +8.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 41.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
These Chiefs vs Texans best bets are based on complex simulations and wagering expertise to help you place better bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Chiefs have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Texans to win is our recommended option because of the 1.9% edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is crucial to being profitable in the long run.
Chiefs vs Texans: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Chiefs vs Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday is the Chiefs winning 24-17.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Kansas City vs Houston game on Sunday, including data-driven predictions and top betting tips.
Chiefs vs Texans: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score the first touchdown in Chiefs vs Texans? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Houston's Nico Collins is the most likely player to score the first TD in Chiefs vs Texans.
Collins has a 9.2% chance of scoring the first TD at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, while the Texans WR has a 39.0% chance of registering an anytime touchdown.
Scroll down for the full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Chiefs First TD Tips
- Isiah Pacheco: 8.6% probability
- Kareem Hunt: 8.2% probability
- Travis Kelce: 7.7% probability
- Xavier Worthy: 7.1% probability
- Hollywood Brown: 6.4% probability
Texans First TD Tips
- Nico Collins: 9.2% probability
- Joe Mixon: 9.1% probability
- Dalton Schultz: 7.4% probability
- John Metchie: 4.6% probability
- C.J. Stroud: 4.0% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Chiefs Anytime TD Tips
- Isiah Pacheco: 34.8% probability
- Kareem Hunt: 34.0% probability
- Travis Kelce: 31.6% probability
- Xavier Worthy: 29.8% probability
- DeAndre Hopkins: 26.4% probability
Texans Anytime TD Tips
- Nico Collins: 39.0% probability
- Joe Mixon: 38.6% probability
- Dalton Schultz: 30.6% probability
- John Metchie: 19.7% probability
- C.J. Stroud: 17.7% probability
Chiefs-Texans Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is projected for 269 passing yards. The Texans' C.J. Stroud is expected to throw for 229 yards.
Chiefs Starting QB
- Patrick Mahomes: 269 projected passing yards
Texans Starting QB
- C.J. Stroud: 229 projected passing yards
Chiefs Rushing Yards
- Isiah Pacheco: 45 projected yards
- Kareem Hunt: 32 projected yards
- Patrick Mahomes: 20 projected yards
Texans Rushing Yards
- Joe Mixon: 65 projected yards
- C.J. Stroud: 13 projected yards
- Dameon Pierce: 7 projected yards
Chiefs Receiving Yards
- Travis Kelce: 59 projected yards
- Xavier Worthy: 49 projected yards
- Hollywood Brown: 39 projected yards
- DeAndre Hopkins: 35 projected yards
- Noah Gray: 21 projected yards
Texans Receiving Yards
- Nico Collins: 70 projected yards
- Dalton Schultz: 32 projected yards
- John Metchie: 32 projected yards
- Joe Mixon: 24 projected yards
- Robert Woods: 19 projected yards
Our model updates frequently, so refresh this article for the latest betting tips before the Kansas City vs Houston match-up.
As always, see our Best Bets to get the best tips on every NFL game, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Chiefs vs Texans: Essential Details
The match-up between the Chiefs and Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:30am AEDT on Sunday.
- Teams: Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans
- Playoff Round: NFL Divisional Round
- Date: Sunday 19 January 2025
- Time: 8:30am AEDT
- Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Kansas City vs Houston predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our NFL predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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