For those of us who bet golf each and every week it can be a real grind to pick yourself back up after a rough week or a bad beat. 

Having a 50-1 ticket on Louis at the US Open, even if we ended up coming out ahead for the week it still hurt to see what Rahm did on 17 and 18 Monday morning. 

But our mid-week malaise was very short lived as we looked at the betting board of the Travelers with a real eagerness for Thursday to hurry up and arrive. 

It is a rare feeling indeed to have that ‘this is our week’ feeling, but we can’t shake it – this is our week! 

There’s fourty four (44) bets to choose from spread out across the events in Munich and Connecticut tonight. Good luck to all and come on the Pak Man!!

European Tour – BMW International Open

The Euro Tour is in Germany this week at the Munich Eichenried Golf Club for what is a great event for us to watch down under given the times (event starts 3.30pm eastern time here in aus with great coverage on Fox from 8.30pm).

We’re picking just one golfer in the Outright / FRL markets and then having a little bit of fun with some Top 40 multi’s then moving on to the PGA event where we really like the looks of our multi’s this week!

Callum Hill has blown out in the betting to a very bettable 81-1 so we are jumping on that at the each-way (T5) and also for First-Round Leader. 

There is weather around which should impact the PM wave so we like Hill going off in the third group early. 

This is exactly the kind of course Hill should thrive at, if he can fire up the putter we could be looking at a breakthrough win on a big stage. 

Outright Bets

• Callum Hill to win @ 81/16

First Round Leader Bets

• Callum Hill @ 61/12.50

Naturally we’re including Hill in our Top 40 Multi, along with two guys we see as being very safe at this course in Rozner whose tee to green game has been flawless this last month, and Stephan Jaeger who has been in form on the KFT and has played this course plenty. 

Two a little further down include our boy Pep Angles who is expected to continue his bounce back form from the Scandinavian Mixed a fortnight ago, as well as a young aussie on debut in Elvis Smylie, the son-of-a-tennis-gun who has had a pretty red hot Australasian Tour this past 12 months including a T2 at the NSW Open.

All five of these guys are in the AM/PM wave which looks to have a good advantage with rain and wind expected in the afternoon. Good chance these guys may finish their second rounds in perfect conditions Saturday morning. 

Going to take all 4-leg combo’s and the 5 legger (6 beets total).

Euro Top 40 Multi

• Antoine Rozner @ 1.57

• Callum Hill @ 1.91

• Stephan Jaeger @ 2.10

• Elvis Smylie @ 3.50 

• Pep Angles @ 4.20

PGA TOUR – Travelers Championship

The Tour travels to Connecticut to TPC Rivers Highlands for The Travelers Championship this week, a 6,850yd Par 70 that never fails to produce an entertaining finish. 

This course is all about approach/wedges into the greens, with so many Par 4’s (13) the difference this week will be how close you can knock your wedge into these tight pins, and how many putts you can roll in on these Poa greens. 

Two Par 5’s are must-birdie holes and there are potentially 2 drivable par 4’s here, so the bigger hitters can still gain an advantage if they are accurate enough, but we want the up-and-down from inside 150 guys this week. 

Weather looks pretty good, particularly first two days. Some wind Saturday afternoon but really conditions look perfect for low scoring, which is exactly what these young college kids coming through are all about and the reason I bring that up is so you won’t instantly click off when you see our two picks in the Outright market this week. 

We’re going back to the two ‘next best things’, one of which markets have completely forgotten on the back of a shocking first round at the Palmetto two weeks back. 

Outright Bets

• Davis Thompson EW @ 175 (top 5)

• John Pak EW @ 500 (top 5)

First Round Leader Bets

• Davis Thompson EW @ 111 (top 5)

• John Pak EW @ 226 (top 5)

Pak was the best college player in the US this year by a long way, winning every award there was to win and markets seem to have forgotten that after one bad round on debut at a hard course two weeks ago. 

We have not. Complete forgive opening round at the Palmetto for Pak.

Thompson was not far behind Pak in terms of Collegiate success and his PGA professional debut two weeks ago was first class, rallying from +5 thru 8 to finish his opening round even par closing with four straight birdies. 

He finished T35 and while Pak’s opening 79 was pretty horrid, the ball striking wasn't bad it was just the greens got him, and he followed that +8 up with an even-par 71 in R2 which shows the kid has fight. 

SB has some extended first-round leader markets that caught our interest as well. 

Top 10 Finish After Round 1

• Davis Thompson @ 18

• John Pak @ 20

Top 20 Finish After Round 1

• Davis Thompson @ 9

• John Pak @ 10

Of course Pak could be one of those dominant College guys who never cut it on the big stage, OR he could have just stumbled out of the gate at a hard course and in fact be as good as his trophy cabinet says he is. 

If it’s the latter, then this course is absolutely perfect for him – a wedge-fest that rewards ball striking and I’m inclined not to wait for him to show us he is good before betting him again. 

Forget that opening round and his 500-1 price looks objectively crazy. 

Naturally both youngsters are going into our 6-leg Top 40 Multi this week as well – we’re all in on the Pak Man! 

Taking all the 4 and 5-leg combos plus the 6-legger (22 bets).

Top 40 Multi

• Abraham Ancer @ 1.67

• Joaquin Niemann @ 1.91

• Adam Scott @ 2.10

• Garrick Higgo @ 2.25

• Davis Thompson @ 5.00

• John Pak @ 5.50

What The Model Says

A little perusal of Stats Insiders Golf Tournament Futures page reveals some market value in players like Reed, Tringale, Gooch, Poulter and Ancer in the Top 10/20 Markets. 

For those of you playing DFS tonight, the H2H Matchup Tool is a great way see what the model is saying about the H2H probabilities, it can be great for when you have those selection headaches for your last few guys into your team. 

That’s it from me, I'm off to the Bottleo via the range, enjoy the weekend of golf, be sure to come and say G’day / well done / you’re sh*t on our Club 20 Twitter page and keep an eye out for some AFL bets dropping tomorrow.