Collingwood Powers Past Port in 2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities

Collingwood is Stats Insider's most likely team to win the 2023 AFL premiership.

Following the Magpies' 78-point win over the Suns in Round 16, Collingwood is the premiership favourite, with Stats Insider's AFL predictive model giving the Magpies a 25% winning probability.

According to Stats Insider's AFL futures model, Collingwood, Port Adelaide and Brisbane are the only teams given a 21.4% or higher chance of winning this year's AFL premiership.

Collingwood is the $3.70 top elect to win the 2023 premiership on the Betfair Exchange, with an implied probability of 27%. 

Stats Insider's AFL data analyst says the nature of Collingwood's win when compared to Port Adelaide's narrow victory over Essendon saw the Magpies jump ahead of the Power in the futures probabilities.

"Collingwood's 78-point victory over Gold Coast was enough for the model to put the Pies at the top," he said.

"Collingwood went into the match with a 57% win probability but made a statement against the Suns, restricting them to just one goal for a half while kicking 11 of their own. 

"Conversely, Port Adelaide went into their game with a higher winning probability and needed the last kick of the game to get over the line against Essendon.

"Stats Insider's AFL schedule difficulty assessor gives Collingwood the second hardest run home of any team for the remainder of 2023, but given they only leave Melbourne once in the final eight rounds of the season, Collingwood is in a strong position to finish the season on top of the ladder, which gives them the best possible chance to win the flag."

Collingwood clashes with the Western Bulldogs in Round 17.

2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities

All probabilities and odds listed in this article are correct at the time of publication.

(Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)