Commanders vs Bills Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 3, 2023
Last updated: Sep 24, 2023, 5:01PM | Published: Sep 19, 2023, 4:06AM
The Washington Commanders face the favoured Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 3 action at FedExField on Monday, beginning at 3:00am AEST.
Stats Insider's top betting tips for Commanders vs Bills, plus the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips, are featured below.
Who Will Win: Commanders vs Bills
Using state-of-the-art machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated Monday's Washington-Buffalo NFL match-up 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Bills a 62% chance of defeating the Commanders in Week 3 of the NFL season.
More: Commanders vs Bills Match Centre
Commanders vs Bills: Odds
The latest betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at FedExField are shown here:
- Head to Head: Commanders $2.80, Bills $1.45
- Line: Commanders +5.5 ($1.91), Bills -5.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 44 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, bet365 currently has the Commanders at $2.80 and the Bills at $1.45.
The Commanders are listed as 5.5-point underdogs against the Bills, with odds of $1.91 currently available at PointsBet.
For the favourite Bills (-5.5) to cover the line, PointsBet currently has odds of $1.91.
The Over/Under for total points scored sits at 44 with bet365, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.91 and odds for the Under at $1.91.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Commanders (+5.5) have a 62% chance of covering the line, while the 44-point Over/Under is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
More: Live Win Probabilities for All Sports
Commanders vs Bills: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Washington at $2.80 with bet365 (3.3% edge)
- Line: Commanders +5.5 at $1.91 with PointsBet (62% probability) 🔥
- Total Points: Under 44 at $1.91 with bet365 (50% probability)
Any time you see a 🔥, you know you've found one of our best tips for today across all sports.
Stats Insider's Commanders vs Bills predictions are based on world-class modelling and gambling intelligence to help you place smarter bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Bills have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Commanders to win is our recommended option due to the 3.3% edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Making use of the edges published here at Stats Insider is crucial to being profitable in the long run.
Commanders vs Bills: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Commanders vs Bills at FedExField in Week 3 has the Bills winning 23-20.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
For more information, click or tap See Matchup.
Stats Insider has full betting coverage of Washington vs Buffalo in Week 3, including pre-game predictions, the best betting tips, and live win probabilities.
Commanders vs Bills: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score the first touchdown in Commanders vs Bills? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Buffalo's Stefon Diggs is the most likely player to score the first TD in Commanders vs Bills.
Diggs has a 9.6% chance of scoring the first TD at FedExField, while the Bills WR has a 38.8% chance of registering an anytime touchdown.
Scroll down for our full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Commanders First TD Tips
- Brian Robinson: 9.5% probability
- Terry McLaurin: 5.7% probability
- Jahan Dotson: 5.5% probability
- Antonio Gibson: 4.6% probability
- Curtis Samuel: 4.2% probability
Bills First TD Tips
- Stefon Diggs: 9.6% probability
- Gabe Davis: 8.4% probability
- Josh Allen: 8.1% probability
- James Cook: 7.1% probability
- Damien Harris: 5.5% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Commanders Anytime TD Tips
- Brian Robinson: 40.6% probability
- Terry McLaurin: 25.3% probability
- Jahan Dotson: 24.9% probability
- Antonio Gibson: 21.0% probability
- Curtis Samuel: 19.7% probability
Bills Anytime TD Tips
- Stefon Diggs: 38.8% probability
- Josh Allen: 33.8% probability
- Gabe Davis: 33.5% probability
- James Cook: 29.2% probability
- Damien Harris: 23.9% probability
Commanders-Bills Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Commanders' Sam Howell is projected for 204 passing yards, while the Bills' Josh Allen is expected to throw for 244 yards.
Commanders Starting QB
- Sam Howell: 204 projected passing yards
Bills Starting QB
- Josh Allen: 244 projected passing yards
Commanders Rushing Yards
- Brian Robinson: 62 projected yards
- Sam Howell: 18 projected yards
- Antonio Gibson: 15 projected yards
Bills Rushing Yards
- James Cook: 66 projected yards
- Josh Allen: 39 projected yards
- Damien Harris: 36 projected yards
Commanders Receiving Yards
- Terry McLaurin: 66 projected yards
- Jahan Dotson: 47 projected yards
- Curtis Samuel: 29 projected yards
- John Bates: 27 projected yards
- Cole Turner: 17 projected yards
Bills Receiving Yards
- Stefon Diggs: 79 projected yards
- Gabe Davis: 51 projected yards
- Dalton Kincaid: 31 projected yards
- Deonte Harty: 26 projected yards
- Dawson Knox: 25 projected yards
Our model updates frequently, so refresh this page for the latest betting analysis before the Washington vs Buffalo match-up at FedExField.
As always, check out our Best Bets for betting tips on every NFL game, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
Commanders vs Bills: Week 3 Preview
The NFL Week 3 match-up between the Commanders and Bills at FedExField is scheduled to start at 3:00am AEST on Monday.
- Teams: Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills
- Date: Monday 25 September 2023
- Time: 3:00am AEST
- Venue: FedExField
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise noted.
Our predictions for Washington vs Buffalo are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
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