Cox Plate Betting Preview

It’s almost hard to remember that the Cox Plate was once a competitive race! Northerly v Sunline, Bonecrusher v Our Waverley Star, Saintly v Filante and All Our Mob in 1996… it has since become another Winx exhibition gallop, until last year when Humidor gave her a great challenge in the last 100m.

The small field should allow for most runners to do as they please early. WINX has settled midfield in all three Cox Plate wins so we can expect Bowman to let a few bowl along in front of her. We should see KINGS WILL DREAM, ROSTROPOVICH and BENBATL in front of her with AVILIUS and HUMIDOR taking up the rear.

No surprises here that the SI model has the queen on top comfortably, but Winx races have become quite popular for exotic players, so let’s see who the model has filling the placings:

WINX (6)

SI Rating: 100

$1.25 to $1.22. The obvious one to beat. What can be said about her that hasn’t been well documented? Going for 29 in a row and four consecutive Cox Plates. 9: 8-0-0 over the distance and 3: 3-0-0 at the Valley. She continues to face small fields which only plays to her advantage as Bowman can weave his way out of any trouble. Nothing this prep suggests she loses other than a career-best run from our second pick in...

BENBATL (3)

SI Rating: 86

$8.50 to $9. The second-highest rated European horse to ever grace us with their presence. Saeed bin Suroor and Pat Cosgrove have already won our Caulfield Cup this year and now have their eyes on another feature with this talented 5yo. Has amassed $6m in earnings, the bulk of which came from his win in the Dubai Turf. G1 wins in Dubai and Munich (1800-2000m) amongst his achievements and the obvious challenger from the internationals. Narrowly won the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) first-up to make his case but the way he fought out the finish against Goldolphin colleague Blair House shows that he loves a fight. The only other runner with any backing.

HUMIDOR (7)

SI Rating: 85

$15 out to $17. Gave Winx a great fright in the 2017 Cox Plate, a race described by Blake Shinn as “a Cox Plate-winning run in any other year”. Has flown under the radar because of the media focus on Benbatl and the other raiders. Has placed to Homesman and to Benbatl in separate Caulfield runs this prep, so looks in just as good touch as last year. Made good ground from the back of the field last ran and a serious place chance.

D’ARGENTO (2)

SI Rating: 77

$31 out to $41. Kerrin McEvoy desperately wants to become just the eighth jockey to win all four of the Caulfield Cup / Cox Plate / Melb Cup / Golden Slipper quartet and will need to work some magic to complete it this year. In some stellar form since the Everest win, but D’Argento is unfortunately no Redzel. Has placed behind Home Of The Brave, Hartnell and the great mare herself this prep before a fifth in the Caulfield Stakes won by Benbatl. Waller has brought her here to fill the quinella. 

AVILIUS (1)

SI Rating: 74

$16 out to $31. Cummings runner who loves the 2000m (5: 2-0-2) trip who has yet to be tested in anything tougher than a G3 since arriving in Australia. Built a picket fence of four wins (including three G3s) wins in his last four runs but hasn’t blown them away in any of them. Drawn well and hard to knock a winner, but the telling sign is that James Cummings has conceded this is just a lead-up run for the Melbourne Cup in a week and a half. Prefer others. 

KINGS WILL DREAM (4)

SI Rating: 68

$21 out to $34. Blinkers first time. Backs up from the Caulfield Cup in which he was just under four lengths away from Best Solution, making up some ground in the last 400m. Just one shot at the 2000m distance, a 1.75L effort behind Winx in the Turnbull two runs back. A very consistent G1 performer who should get some healthy prizemoney for his troubles, and one to include in the trifectas. 

SAVVY COUP (5)

SI Rating: 15

$26 out to $51. Just the one run over the 2000m distance, the G1 Livamol Classic beating home some good NZ types such as Lizzie L’amour and Danzdanzdance, but they were both well outclassed in their Aussie adventure. Out of Savabeel who won the Cox Plate in 2004. One run in Australia for a 5th in the ATC Oaks (2400m). Out of her depth here. 

ROSTROPOVICH (8)

SI Rating: 13

Steady at $31. Aidan O’Brien runner here from Ireland after winning a 2400m G3 at Leopardstown and some handy G1/G2 performances over the same distances at Curragh and Ascot. Forgive the 5th in the King George VI at Ascot if you’re doing the form - he was victim of a ridiculous pace up front and died in the run late as a result. They ran 2:25 over 2400m in that race which would absolutely eclipse the track record here. With a smaller field he’s got a better chance if they allow Ryan Moore a mid-race breather. The 2000m form is the query but one to include in the exotics in my opinion. 

Stats Insider’s ratings: 6-1-2-5

Aaron Murphy’s selections: 6-1-4-8