Data Road Trip: The Highs and the Lows
Apr 30, 2018, 5:29AM
Data Road Trip looks back on the weekend that was, looking at the key data points and numbers that formed what we saw in all of the AFL and NRL action. Head to Head bets, Lines, Totals, win probabilities, we'll break them down here. This week we take a look at the weekend of AFL's Unders, a couple of wins that got away in the NRL as well as some surprise upsets. Let's get into it!
67 Percent
It was all going swimmingly for the Rabbitohs on Thursday night early in the second half - they were leading 14-12 and were in control of the game, a 67 percent chance on the SI Win Probability Index. This was until a Corey Oates-inspired comeback from the Broncos blew Souths off the park, and they crumbled to a surprising 20-24 home defeat.
81 Percent
Manly has been in the wars lately, there's no doubt about it. Struggling off the field and full of controversy off it, they've not had a lot going their way. But on Friday night they were tied 12-12 and in good field position, an 81 percent chance of pulling out the win according to SI, but yet again they were found wanting when Nathan Ross scored for the Knights and added more misery for the Sea Eagles.
6 Lead Changes
The SI Win Probability could not decide just who was going to pull out the win between the Panthers and the Bulldogs on Friday night. On 6 occasions one team became the favourite, but it would be the Panthers who would pull away and overcome a halftime deficit to defeat the Bulldogs, who continue to have scoring woes - just 14 points again.
49 Percent
The Cowboys had controlled the majority of proceedings during the first 50 or so minutes of their clash with the Raiders. They were still struggling to score but their defence had held firm and got them an 8-6 lead, and the Raiders only had a 49 percent chance to win at that point. But Canberra surged home, rattling off two straight converted tries to steal a hard fought win on the road.
Under 170.5... Just
Tough, contested footy has become the norm in the AFL at the moment. A record breaking number of low scoring games culminated in the last couple of weeks, and SI predicted it would happen again in the Western Australian Derby between West Coast and Fremantle. It went right to the wire, and wouldn't you know it, they finished with 170 points.
