Data Road Trip: Trying To Win Against All Odds
Last updated: Apr 30, 2018, 2:25AM | Published: Apr 26, 2018, 11:03PM
Welcome to Data Road Trip, where Stats Insider takes a look back at five key points from a wild weekend of AFL and NRL action.
11%:
Essendon defeated Adelaide at Etihad Stadium in a Friday Night thriller. However, the most special part of their comeback was that when Adelaide kicked their first goal of the final quarter, the Bombers held just an 11 percent chance of victory according to SI's win probability model. Despite this, they overcame the odds and got the win.
14-0:
For the third week running the Penrith Panthers found themselves 14-0 down, but this week wasn't another where they overcame the odds. Despite rallying to close the deficit on the Canterbury Bulldogs, they never got closer than 2 points late in the second half. SI's win probability model says their chances never got better than 35 percent, just after the second half resumed.
33%:
Despite kicking the first five goals of the game, Carlton were still a huge underdog in their clash with Richmond to open the AFL season. SI's win probability model never placed them higher than 33 percent to win the game, and it proved true as the Tigers came steaming back into the game to win by 26 points.
74%:
For the third consecutive week the Wests Tigers turned the game against their opponents into a complete grind and dog fight. After beating the Sydney Roosters and Melbourne Storm they took on the Brisbane Broncos looking for their third straight scalp against the odds. With less than 10 minutes to go the Tigers were up to 74 percent on SI's win probability, but a contentious penalty changed the course of the game and Brisbane stole the win.
99%:
The New Zealand Warriors pulled off an improbable comeback quite literally against all odds on Saturday at Canberra Stadium vs the Raiders. It was the sort of thing that needed to be seen to be believed. An Issac Luke try and back-to-back Shaun Johnson field goals inside the last three minutes handed the Raiders a disastrous loss. With three minutes to go the Raiders win probability had jumped to 99 percent. It goes to show that until the final whistle, anything is possible.
