Data Road Trip: Weekend of the Underdog
Apr 27, 2018, 1:24AM
Data Road Trip looks back on the weekend that was, looking at the key data points and numbers that formed what we saw in all of the AFL and NRL action. Head to Head bets, Lines, Totals, win probabilities, we'll break them down here. This week we take a look at a couple of underdogs in both AFL & NRL, the AFL's game of the round, the NRL's Sydney Derby, and the Warriors attempt to go 6-0 against the Broncos. Let's get into it!
$5.00 Head to Head
That's what you could have got in the markets for betting on Collingwood as a heavy 35.5 point underdog on Friday night. SI's Punting Prediction had them as a recommended bet, and if you #TrustTheModel you would've got on the Pies and collected yourself a nice win.
50% Win Probability
Coming into Thursday's heavily anticipated Sydney derby, the Rabbitohs were heavy 9.5 point underdogs. Nevermind though, as they stormed past the Roosters with an early second half barrage. Sydney only got as close as a 50-50 proposition in the second half, as the Rabbitohs ran away with it.
The 50-50 Game
In what proved to be the Game of the Round between the Western Bulldogs and Sydney Swans, SI's Win Probability had them as a 50-50 Win Probability at halftime. In a seesawing contest the young Dogs kept fighting but the experienced Swans kept responding, and though the Dogs rallied to 45 percent with 5 minutes to go, a couple of mistakes cost them a vital win.
$3.50 Underdog
Another day, another underdog win for Stats Insider. The Canterbury Bulldogs were a $3.50 underdog heading up to Townsville for their clash with the North Queensland Cowboys, but the Bulldogs shellshocked the Cowboys in a barnstorming 27-10 victory. Guess what? It was another recommended bet.
Over 34.5 Points
That was the amount of points you needed on the Overs recommended bet on SI for NZ Warriors versus the Brisbane Broncos. The teams delivered in spades, as a high scoring contest finished 27-18 in favour of the underdog Broncos. The total was surpassed in just 45 minutes, as a 29 point first half made the total easy pickings in the second.
