Early Mail: Friday August 10th
Last updated: Mar 4, 2021, 3:07AM | Published: Aug 10, 2018, 4:42AM
With the Premier League kicking off tonight we've got four games to devour instead of the usual three, with the Bombers needing a big win against the Saints, the Knights heading across the ditch to take on the Warriors, the mouth-watering top of the table clash between the Rabbitohs and Roosters, and lastly Manchester United hosting Leicester City.
NRL
Warriors vs Knights
Head to Head: Warriors $1.33, Knights $3.50
Line: Warriors -8.5, Knights +8.5
Total: Over/Under 42.5
Key Value: Under
Match Page: Click Here!
With Bunty Afoa getting through the judiciary on Tuesday night, the Warriors are 1-17. Mitchell Pearce has trained well this week and is expected to stay in the 17 for tomorrow night. Meaney making the cut to stay in the reserves is a worry for the Knights. Ponga has been nursing an ankle injury so could be in doubt. Tread carefully there.
The Total has jumped to 42 adding some value to the Under option. There's no change to the Line, although the Knights did get up to +9 briefly. Warriors look good to win, but there's no value there or anywhere. Wait for Ponga/final teams.
Rabbitohs vs Roosters
Head to Head: Rabbitohs $1.93, Roosters $1.93
Line: Rabbitohs +1.5, Roosters -1.5
Total: Over/Under 40.5
Key Value: Rabbitohs Win, Roosters Line, Under
Match Page: Click Here!
Campbell Graham has been ruled out with Braidon Burns coming onto the wing. Graham had been playing well, but it's not a game-changing out.
The hype machine is generating speed as we approach this one giving it a finals feel. With that, expect to see the first and third best defences in the NRL to jam up and clog the middle. It's where both sides look to assert their dominance before sending it wide to score. The expected defensive intensity lends itself to the Under at 40.5 and is still the play here with the Model pointing to a +13% edge.
AFL
Bombers vs Saints
Head to Head: Essendon $1.20, St. Kilda $4.80
Line: Essendon -31.5, St. Kilda +31.5
Total: Over/Under 177.5
Key Value: St. Kilda Win
Match Page: Click Here!
Mass changes for the Saints have surprisingly not budged the markets despite St Kilda losing their #1 ruck. Bombers unchanged. The model's Line edge for the Saints moved to 5% (up from 3%) but there is still nothing to smile about here value wise. Zero edge in the totals.
These two sides have been unpredictable at best this season, Essendon should get the job done comfortably and I can see a likely scenario where they really thrash the Saints but like the model, I'm failing to see the value. Too much uncertainty surrounding Essendon's forward line and it's ability to kick a big score with Brown/Carlisle down back for the Saints. Waiting for a value-packed Saturday!
EPL
Manchester United vs Leicester City
Full-Time Result: Man Utd $1.53, Draw $4.20, Leicester $7.50
Total: Over 2.5 $2.00, Under 2.5 $1.80
Both Teams To Score: Yes $2.00, No $1.75
Key Value: Over 2.5, BTTS - Yes
Match Page: Click Here!
Manchester United (2nd in 2017-18) open their campaign at home against Leicester City (9th) and all signs point to a home win and a game with plenty of goals. Six of the past nine between these two have gone over 2.5 and our model has identified another high scoring game as key value. While Jose Mourinho has been frustrated with a lack of transfer activity (particularly with a back four that could be stronger), he boasts plenty of firepower.
Romelu Lukaku’s World Cup was encouraging, and Alexis Sanchez has had a full pre-season to gel with the squad. Jamie Vardy had a consistent 2017-18 (20 goals and the first player to score against the six big clubs) and Jonny Evans and Rachid Ghezzal look decent replacements for Mahrez. Overs AND both teams to score all day.
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