EPL Betting Preview: Week 10

We're already one-quarter of the way through season 2018/19! After an uncharacteristically ordinary week in week nine, we look closely for model-identified value in this week's early markets. 

The Game: Watford v Huddersfield

When: Sunday 28 Oct, 1:00am EDT

The Play: Huddersfield double chance / Both Teams to Score

Some orange value on offer for Huddersfield, as there was last week when they held Liverpool to a 1-0 defeat and were denied what would have been a draw-clenching equaliser by the woodwork in the first half.

The model sees a good price for them to pick up some points away to Watford, where they have lost only twice from eight visits (W4, D2, L2). Their biggest issue currently is their sluggish starts: they have not led at half-time once this season and have conceded 12 first-half goals, albeit just the two in their last two fixtures.

Personally, I find it hard to have Huddersfield to win given the potential of this Watford side – they snapped a four-game winless run at Wolves last weekend. Much prefer to take the price for them to get on the board in a loss or even draw.

The Game: Southampton v Newcastle

When: Sunday 28 Oct, 1:00am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

Two league battlers will be eyeing this game off as a great opportunity for much-needed points, and as a historically high-scoring fixture, I’m encouraged to see the model identify some value in the over 2.5 play. 

The last seven meetings between these sides have all seen three or more goals scored, as have Southampton’s last three at home. Tough to pick a winner given that Newcastle’s only points on the road have been away from home, while the Saints have won just one of their last 15 league games at home (1-7-7). 

Expecting a flurry of late goals: Southampton have just one first-half goal to their name this PL season, while Newcastle have opened the scoring just once. 

The Game: Crystal Palace v Arsenal

When: Monday 29 Oct, 12:30am EDT

The Play: Crystal Palace double chance

Admittedly, I was not attracted to parting ways with my hard earned for the struggling Palace to beat the Gunners, particularly given that Palace still haven’t scored at home this season and Arsenal have done the HT/FT double for seven straight matches now. 

Alas, the model is certainly beating me in early markets, so it’s time to #TrustTheModel and have a small stake on the double chance market. Palace did sweep Arsenal 3-0 at home late in the 2016/17 season, so they have some form. Having conceded just five goals in their last five matches, they could be the ones to slow down the Arsenal juggernaut. 

As always, if you can’t back the value, take the advice and avoid the favourites at the poor price.

The Game: Burnley v Chelsea

When: Monday 29 Oct, 12:30am EDT

The Play: Both Teams to Score / Chelsea -0.5 first half handicap

An orange smiley available for both Burnley and Chelsea to get on the board, as they have done in six of their last seven meetings. Given that Burnley have scored in three of their last four and three of their four at home this season, you’re getting a handy price at about 2.20 in early markets effectively for them to get on the board. Chelsea have kept only four clean sheets this season, and have conceded to the likes of Newcastle and Cardiff, so they’re not invulnerable. 

Chelsea have a fantastic first-half record of five wins and four draws this season, so also worth backing them to be in front at the break against a Burnley outfit that have opened the scoring on just three occasions this year.

The Game: Manchester United v Everton

When: Monday 29 Oct, 3:00am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both Teams to Score

Who would have thought that Everton would be ahead of Mourinho’s boys after nine rounds? They’ve both been scoring and conceding in big numbers lately and the model finds this to be the value game of the round, with orange edges on offer for both to score as well as the overs in the total goals market. 

United’s defensive woes have been well documented, with the side having kept just one PL clean sheet (v Burnley) this season. They’ve been earning their points with pure unadulterated attack, scoring 2+ on six occasions. Seven of their matches have gone overs. 

Everton haven’t won at Old Trafford since 14/15, though they’ve finally hit their straps by stringing together three consecutive wins against bottom ten clubs. With just two clean sheets to their name this season and just one match in which they have failed to score, expect them to give United a big test.

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