EPL Betting Preview: Week 11

Week 11 features a couple of mouthwatering clashes including Arsenal’s biggest test since their undefeated run was extended at Crystal Palace last week. 

We take a look at the early EPL markets and run through the value identified by the Stats Insider model. With Cup games to be played by many clubs this week, it’s certainly worth taking up a subscription and checking out the match pages on the weekend for updated edges - particularly with uncertainty at this stage surrounding squad rotation and the like!

Note: based on value identified by the model at the time of publication. Subject to change closer to kickoff, so check the match pages on game day for up to date information. 

Who: West Ham United v Burnley

When: Sun Nov 4, 2:00am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both To Score - YES

A double-smiley play to start a big Saturday night of action. After an impressive September that included points against Chelsea and United, the Hammers appear to have somewhat fallen away again. That said, they almost managed to hold onto a lead at Leicester for an hour despite being a man down. 

They should be able to bounce back against a Burnley side that have lost three of their five on the road (W1, D1), including at Fulham and Wolves. But the edges identified by the model point to both sides contributing to a game total of 3+. The stats are slightly in favour of this result: 11 of the 20 PL matches involving either side have gone overs, while the two sides have kept a paltry three clean sheets between them in those 20. 

Who: Everton v Brighton

When: Sun Nov 4, 2:00am EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

Everton continue to pick up points against strugglers but are showing themselves to be nothing more than a mid-table club. They created plenty of chances in a late-game burst against United but they lack a clinical finisher who can lift against the big six. 

Brighton haven’t exactly disgraced themselves on the road this season, with their two away losses coming against City and Liverpool - and they held an albeit wasteful Liverpool to a 1-0 result.

The early value according to the model lies with this being a low scorer. The two sides have met just since Brighton’s return to the big time, with both matches producing two goals each. The Gulls have kept three clean sheets in consecutive 1-0 wins and are proving a tough nut to crack. Everton themselves have consecutive clean sheets at home so it looks like a grind for both sides here.

Who: Arsenal v Liverpool

When: Sun Nov 4, 4:30am EDT

The Play: Liverpool to win

Match of the round. Arsenal’s 11-game winning run came to an abrupt halt at Selhurst Park as the Gunners let the lead slip twice against Palace. While Emery’s men have been playing with confidence since opening the season with losses to Chelsea and City, their body language after dropping both goals suggested that they’re just not quite ready to hack it with the best in the competition yet.

Liverpool are sure to provide their biggest test since the opening fortnight and the fact they’re away just adds a bit of value to their price, particularly if Hector Bellerin misses out (uncertain at time of publication) through injury. Liverpool are undefeated in their last six against Arsenal which includes a 4-3 win at the Emirates in 16/17. Just feel that this will be a fraction too difficult for the home side, even though they have been flying.

Who: Wolves v Tottenham

When: Sun Nov 4, 6:45am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

The stats point towards the unders but, according to the model, the bookies could be keeping it a little too safe and in turn have opened up some value on the over 2.5 play.

Tottenham scored 12 goals in their first six games, but since then their last four league games have gone unders, with Spurs scoring one or fewer goals in the last three. A resolute Wolves defence which has conceded just five goals at home this season is sure to provide them with another tough test. Furthermore, only one Wolves game - their first - produced a total over 2.5.

If you can’t take the value (though it could be your loss!) this could be a case of simply not taking the bad price on offer for the overs. Best not to play this match before Tottenham’s Cup game against West Ham on Thursday morning. While not a gruelling away trip, it’s likely to influence the XI that they turn out on Sunday.

Who: Manchester City v Southampton

When: Mon Nov 5, 2:00am EDT

The Play: Both To Score - YES

A short backup for City who have a Cup game at home to Fulham on Friday morning, though they certainly have the depth to deal with that if required. No Cup game for Southampton - it was postponed after the helicopter disaster in Leicester. They’ll be fresh for this.

The model finds an edge in favour of both teams scoring, which, in reality, should be value for Southampton finding the back of the net. You’d be a brave man to take it, given that the Saints haven’t scored in their last five league games - though they did pick up away goals in their last two League Cup victories at Everton and Brighton, two places that aren’t always easy to score at let alone win. 

Two encouraging stats in your favour: Southampton have scored in their last three visits to the Etihad, and City have conceded at home to Huddersfield and Newcastle - two clubs travelling worse than Southampton this season. 

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