EPL Betting Preview: Week 12
Last updated: Nov 9, 2018, 5:55AM | Published: Nov 6, 2018, 1:59AM.jpg?w=750)
Four out of six on the early EPL plays in Week 11 leaves us with a bit of cash to spare thanks to some good orange smileys from the model, so let’s see if it can get us on a good roll leading into the November international break. Yes - we do have value on the Manchester derby! You ripper!
Please note: these are author opinions, not predictions by the Stats Insider Premier League Model. For those, you can visit our Premier League Hub.
When: Sun 11 Nov, 2:00am EDT
The Play: Both to Score - YES
A minor edge (+4%) on both teams to score, which will currently double your money in early markets. The yes has saluted in four of Leicester’s five home games this season, and with Burnley conceding 25 already this season, they’ll need to play with a positive mindset on the road here. Two goals at Fulham, Cardiff and at West Ham last week - albeit much weaker defences than Leicester - gives them a good chance to get this play up. With no value in the more obvious overs play, we prefer this.
Who: Crystal Palace v Tottenham
When: Sun 11 Nov, 4:30am EDT
The Play: Crystal Palace to win
The green smiley of the weekend is for one of the league’s battlers to get a breakthrough win at home against the best travelling side in the league. They’re not panicking yet and, despite just two points at home, the performance against Chelsea was solid two weeks back - they were cruelly stripped of two points by a pretty soft free-kick that Pedro took full advantage of. Spurs have won their last three at Selhurst, but if you like backing an upset, there is currently +8% on offer for the Eagles, which means that Tottenham are an awful price according to the model.
Who: Liverpool v Fulham
When: Sun 11 Nov, 11:00pm EDT
The Play: Under 2.5 goals (small stake)
A small speculative play on the unders if you want the value - currently a 5% edge on the unders, which is currently saluting in 29% of simulations. The stats certainly don’t support it - the last three between these two have seen four or more goals scored, while Fulham are shipping 2.64 a game in the league this season. One thing in support of Fulham is that Liverpool have failed to score more than one in four of their last five, and for all the talk of their front three, they’ve reached 3+ three times in 11 fixtures. This could be worth a go.
Who: Chelsea v Everton
When: Mon 12 Nov, 1:15am EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both to Score - YES
Games at Stamford Bridge this season are averaging a staggering 3.7 goals per game, so when the model finds a +4% edge on this one going over 2.5, it’s worth taking. Four of Chelsea’s last five have gone overs and you can say the same for Everton, who have scored 2+ in their last five. With goals in all but one match this season, they’re a great chance at testing a Chelsea side who failed to keep a clean sheet against the likes of Palace, Newcastle and even Cardiff. There is also currently a +5% edge in the both teams to score market, so this looks like a good value double-play.
Who: Manchester City v Manchester United
When: Mon 12 Nov, 3:30am EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both to Score - YES
Who doesn’t love backing goals in Manchester derbies? Three of the last four have had both teams score with a total of three or more. The model has found some decent edges for both to happen again here: +6% and +5% respectively. Given that matches at the Etihad are averaging 4.5 goals thanks to City’s relentless attack and United themselves have scored in all of their last eight, including nine on the board in their last four matches, while failing to keep clean sheets in all but one league game this season, this is some superb value. Grab it while you can!
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