EPL: Can a cockroach survive a relegation battle?
Last updated: Aug 6, 2019, 2:40AM | Published: Apr 17, 2019, 2:36AM
They say a cockroach can hold its breath for 40 minutes, and can even survive being submerged underwater for half an hour. Their tales of survival are so legendary that it is believed the tiny cockroach could even survive a nuclear explosion.
But, we'll come back to that.
This season’s English Premier League title race is as intoxicating as it’s been in recent memory.
Just two points split both Manchester City and Liverpool, with Stats Insider's Futures Projections reflecting just how tight the Premiership race truly is.
At this moment in time, the model gives Liverpool a 51.5% chance of claiming its first top-flight English title in 29 years, while projecting the Sky Blues a 48.5% prospect of winning its fourth EPL crown in eight seasons.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the table something truly extraordinary is percolating in the relegation race.
This morning’s 2-0 victory by Cardiff away to Brighton introduces the very real prospect the Welsh club survives to grace Premier League pitches for yet another season.
What this relegation battle lacks in terms of the glamour and history of the title fight, it more than makes up for in terms of the incredible statistical anomaly that would constitute a Cardiff survival.
By any measure, Neil Warnock’s squad are one of the most hapless teams - statistically - throughout Europe's top-flight leagues. They’ve spent the entire season in the Premier League relegation zone, playing a brand of football that inspires parents to cover their children’s eyes.
They rarely have the ball, and when they do, perform a rather excellent job of giving it right back.
Not only does Cardiff complete the least amount of short passes in the Premier League per game (209), but they also produce the most amount of inaccurate short passes per match (54.8).
Their possession numbers are the very worst the Premier League has seen this decade while their broader passing success once they have the ball is second only to La Liga’s Getafe where European clubs are concerned.
EUROPE’S TEN WORST TEAMS PASS%
1) GETAFE 63.9 %
2) CARDIFF 64.2 %
3) BURNLEY 70.4 %
4) ALAVES 70.6 %
5) EIBAR 72.7 %
6) NEWCASTLE 72.7 %
7) LEGANES 73.2 %
8) HUESCA 73.6 %
9) NIMES 73.8 %
10) AUGSBURG 73.9 %
They’re undeniably awful, with a range of statics endorsing this claim, yet this morning’s victory moves them within just two points of Brighton, and Premier League survival.
In this morning’s victory, Warnock’s team again lost the possession battle 36% - 64% to Brighton, while their passing success rate of 61% was even less than their season-long average.
Unsurprisingly, they were outshot, 10 - 4. In fact, Cardiff only had three shots on target the entire match yet converted twice and kept this improbable, ugly-duckling-turn-beautiful-swan tale alive.
Cardiff’s run home is a lot more gentle than Brighton’s, with match-ups against the already-relegated Fulham, and 13th placed Crystal Palace still on the schedule.
They may only need to win one of those clashes, considering Brighton still have the likes of Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester City on their docket, in addition to this week’s trip to one of the EPL’s biggest surprise teams, Wolverhampton.
These 'Cardiff Cucarachas' have held their breath now for 34 games of Premier League football, yet are within four games and two points of one of the most improbable, unlikely, yet incredible survival stories in European football history.
What a remarkable species.
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