EPL Monthly Movement: August

Three weeks into the 2018/19 EPL season and we already have plenty to discuss. Jose Mourinho and Manchester United are the talk of the town as he looks to shake off speculation that his famous ‘third season syndrome’ is flaring up once again.

Each month on Stats Insider we’ll take a look where each club stacks up in our futures predictions, compared with the pre-season and the end of last month, to come up with a numbers-based recap of who is exceeding expectations, and who should be worried.

1^st – Liverpool (3-0-0, +7 Goal Difference)

100% record and yet to concede a goal – fair to say the Reds have had a dream opening month. They’ve done it easy so far, leading for an average of 61 minutes per game and winning at HT/FT in all three games. It’s the first time they’ve started a season with three wins since 2013-14 (when they fell short of the title by just two points). Mo Salah and Sadio Mané are firing up forward, while at the other end the Reds have conceded just 10 goals in 14 games with Virgil van Dijk starting. They have now extended their unbeaten PL run at Anfield to 22 games (W14, D8).

Touted during pre-season as a 20.9% chance for the title and a 78.8% chance of top four, Liverpool are winning the league in 25.2% of simulations and finishing top four in nearly 88%. Leicester City this week followed by away trips to Tottenham (where they have not won since 2014) and Chelsea will leave fans with a very strong indication of where the Reds are at by the end of September.

2^nd – Tottenham (3-0-0, +6)

Tottenham had to fight for their first win of the season at St James Park but since then have settled quite quickly, and few would have expected them to go to Old Trafford and demolish Manchester United 3-0 (particularly given they had won just twice at OT in the Premier League era). It’s the first time this decade they have begun a season with three wins. Kane finally snapped his August goal drought, but it’s those around him such as Lucas Moura and Serge Aurier who have impressed. The fact that they have conceded two equalisers but have not dropped a point is a testament to their mental strength.

Staying out of the transfer window may pay dividends, and if Son Heung-min can avoid military service by winning an Asian Games gold medal this weekend that will also be a handy boost. Watford (A) will test and Liverpool at home is a tasty encounter. They’re a realistic chance of having six wins from seven by the end of September, which we’re excited about given we tipped them during pre-season at $17. Once a 9.9% chance to win the title and a 62.6% chance to finish top four, they now look safe to stay in the Champions League at 12.5% and 73% respectively.

3^rd – Chelsea (3-0-0, +5)

Chelsea are another of the big six clubs to have increased their prospects of Champions League football after three wins including two on the road. They fought hard to defeat Arsenal and scraped past Newcastle thanks to an own goal. Somehow holding onto Hazard has paid off so far as he has been a fine replacement for the struggling Alvaro Morata, and Jorginho produced a masterclass when completing more first-half passes than the entire Newcastle side last week.

Three very winnable games coming up (Bournemouth, Cardiff, West Ham) before a highly anticipated home game against Liverpool to round out the month. Considered a 5.9% chance to take the title and a 50.1% chance for a top four finish in pre-season, we now have them winning 7.3% of futures simulations and finishing top four in 66.6%. Big chance to be top of the table at the end of September given their run.

4^th – Watford (3-0-0, +5)

Our model considered Watford a 25% chance for relegation in pre-season after losing Richarlison and some uninspiring signings. After starting the season with three wins for the first time in their top-flight history, they are now being relegated in just 8.1% of simulations, which makes them 12^th most likely to be sent down. But it’s not just the fact that they have won three games including two at home – the performance of individuals is a big factor in our modelling.

Roberto Pereyra has been deadly (three goals), José Holebas is always causing problems (seven key passes and two assists) and Abdoulaye Doucouré has been passing at over 82% completion rate in 270 minutes of football. They host Tottenham and a vulnerable United before trips to Fulham and Arsenal. If they can come away with six points or more they’re well on the way to safety.

5^th – Manchester City (2-1-0, +7)

Despite being fifth at the end of August, Manchester City have solidified their heavy favouritism perhaps combined with Manchester United’s horror start. We considered them a 47.7% chance to win the title and a nearly 90% chance to finish in the top four – those figures have now increased to 50% and 94.2% respectively. They showed their famous ruthlessness against Huddersfield, and despite that draw with Wolves, should be on top of the table by the end of September.

They have arguably the easiest month of any of the title contenders (Newcastle H, Fulham H, Cardiff A, Brighton H) and the absence of De Bruyne should have little to no negative impact on their results. Sergio Agüero continues to age like a vintage wine and six goalscorers in three weeks (even without the likes of KDB, Mahrez and Sané on the board) just shows the kind of freakish depth we haven’t seen in many years.

6^th – Bournemouth (2-1-0, +3)

Considered the sixth most likely club to be relegated at the start of the season (13.4%), Bournemouth’s good start has seen them progress to a likely mid-table finish (10^th-12^th) and they are now being relegated in just 8.8% of futures simulations. It is by far their best start in Premier League history, having previously won no more than one of their first three games. Everton provided them with their first test of the season last week and they passed, holding them to a 2-2 draw at home. A difficult trip to Chelsea is followed with games against Leicester (H), Burnley (A) and Palace (H) – two out of four which could reasonably be considered winnable.

7^th – Leicester (2-0-1, +2)

Leicester have had their best start since their title winning 2015/16 season and, despite already considered a very remote chance of going down to the Championship, have strengthened their chances of survival. They were not disgraced in an opening night loss to Manchester United and grabbed two wins without Jamie Vardy. Liverpool at home next week will be their biggest test of the season to date before Bournemouth (A), Huddersfield (H) and Newcastle (A). Their chances of relegation have fallen from 3.9% to 2.8%, and chances of a top four finish rise slightly to 2.0%, thanks to their solid beginning.

8^th – Everton (1-2-0, +1)

Everton are another side widely expected to make up the numbers and, in almost all of our simulations, are a minute chance of contending either for a European spot or a Championship spot. A new Richarlison and a settled Theo Walcott have given them a greater attacking vigour than was initially expected. Initially a 3.3% chance of top four at the start of the season, they are now occupying Champions League spots in 4.7% of all simulations. With home games against Huddersfield, West Ham and Fulham to come in September, they could even be in the top four at the end of the month.

9^th – Arsenal (1-0-2, -1)

Arsenal were widely expected to take some time to move on from the end of the Wenger era, but that loss at Stamford Bridge would have hurt, particularly given that they recovered a two-goal deficit only to lose late on. This is their worst start since 2011-12, but ninth place should be of no concern given that they started with matches against Manchester City and Chelsea, but they simply don’t look like a contender this season.

If rumours of Alexandre Lacazette leaving the club and Mesut Özil being out of favour with Emery are true, it could be a long season ahead for the Gunners. Their title and top four probabilities have plummeted from 3.8% and 35.4% at the start of the season to 1.6% and 27.2% at the end of August. Two home games in a week against Everton and Watford provide them with a crucial opportunity to steady the ship, as do winnable trips to Cardiff and Newcastle.

10^th – Crystal Palace (1-0-2, -1) 

Not a lot for Crystal Palace fans to be excited or worried about – they look firmly secured in the middle of the table, particularly given this is their best start in three seasons. They easily accounted for Fulham, gave a reasonable account against Liverpool and then struggled at Watford. Christian Benteke’s slump continues to worry, but Sorloth’s debut goal for Palace in the Carabao Cup during the week will be a big confidence boost. Their probability of relegation has fallen slightly from 11.4% to 9.2%, which has them sitting most likely in 11^th at the end of the season. Their home game against Southamptonthis week is huge. 

11^th – Fulham (1-0-2, -2) 

A bit of somewhat good news for Cottagers fans: their chances of relegation have fallen quite significantly three games into the season, thanks to a respectable performance at Wembley and that impressive win over Burnley. Aleksandar Mitrovic found his feet with a double last week and new signing Jean Michael Seri is also settling in well. Three points is probably as much as they could have expected in August given their opposition and September will be another testing month with trips to Man City and Everton. Any points from their trip to Brighton this week – where they haven’t won a competitive fixture since 2014 - will be a huge boost.

12^th – Brighton & Hove Albion (1-0-2, -2)

Brighton’s win over Manchester United will be long remembered by Seagulls fans for years to come and it has gone some way to slightly reducing their probability of relegation from 21.9% to 19.4% (now fifth most likely). While losing both games either side of that memorable afternoon, they were not disgraced in either fixture – very few sides have held Liverpool to just one goal at Anfield recently. I have declared them a special against Fulham this week which would give them some much-needed breathing space; particularly with games to come against Manchester City and Tottenham to come, as well as a trip to Southampton, where they have not won since 2009.

13^th – Manchester United (1-0-2, -3) 

The Red Devils are the talk of the Premier League world after dropping games to Brighton and Tottenham, forcing Jose Mourinho to passionately defend his side after the loss to Spurs. He did have a point: United had 23 shots against Tottenham – more than any of their other league matches this calendar year. Their ‘expected goals’ count against Tottenham, according to Opta, was 1.5, compared with Tottenham’s 1.3. In other words, it just wasn’t their night and a scoreline not reflective of their overall performance.

That said, their 2018/19 prospects have plummeted according to the SI model. This is their worst start since 2014/15, where they still managed to comfortably finish fourth. Previously winning 10.4% of futures simulations and finishing top four in 70%, United are now considered a 2.1% chance to win the title and a 37.6% chance of top four. September is a telling month for United: all four games – Burnley (A) / Watford (A) / Wolves (H) / West Ham (A) – are winnable for a side of their class.

14^th – Wolverhampton (0-2-1, -2)

Given the record-breaking feats accomplished by Wolves in their 2017/18 Championship season and their several signings, it was expected that 2018/19 is going to go one of two extreme ways for Wolves. So far, it’s looking quite bright: despite not yet finding a win, their draws with Everton and Man City were impressive. They look much better statistically than fellow relegation contenders such as Cardiff and Huddersfield, and as a result, their relegation probability has almost halved in just three weeks. Once the fourth most likely to be relegated at 29.9%, Wolves are now being relegated in 16.9% of futures simulations, which places them around the 10^th-12^th mark at end of the season. West Ham away this week is a great opportunity. 

15^th – Cardiff City (0-2-1, -2)

Cardiff have had a rough return to Premier League life, now remaining as the only side in the entire Premier League/Football League system to have not scored a league goal this season. It’s seemingly getting worse by the week for the Bluebirds: they’ve lost Nathaniel Mendez-Laing to a serious knee injury and crashed out of the League Cup at the hands of Norwich. They have the toughest month of any side in the league: Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City in successive fixtures. They are a very real prospect of being winless at the end of September, and as a result, their probability of relegation has increased from 64.8% to 68.3% (most likely of all clubs).

16^th – Newcastle United (0-1-2, -2) 

A Newcastle demise seemed sadly likely during the off-season given owner Mike Ashley’s utmost reluctance to spend on incoming transfers, and an improvement on their 10^th place finish last year almost impossible. Things look grim for this proud club – they’ve lost two from two at home, failed to get a win against lowly Cardiff, and were bundled out of the League Cup by Championship side Nottingham Forest. Rafa Benitez continues to refuse a contract extension and looks almost certain to move on. 

This is their worst Premier League start this decade, and it looks set to get even worse with games against Manchester City and Arsenal still to come. Newcastle were relegated in 10.1% of simulations at the start of the season (tenth most likely) – that has now almost doubled to 19.1% (seventh most likely).

17^th – Southampton (0-1-2, -2) 

Southampton have perhaps been a little unlucky to come away with just one point in August, but given the calibre of their opposition (Burnley and Leicester at home) one point is not enough for comfort. They played well last weekend against Leicester and were undone by a last-gasp world-class strike - from Harry Maguire of all people. 

Maya Yoshida got his first 90 minutes of the season after a late pre-season (due to the World Cup) in an encouraging League Cup win over Brighton and looks likely to start this week. Given he has been one of their most reliable defenders of the past two seasons, perhaps this is the month that Southampton turn their season around. Trips to Crystal Palace, Liverpool and to Wolverhampton – where they haven’t won since 2007 – will test. Their probability of dropping down to the Championship for the first time since 2011/12 has doubled from 8.9% to 17.9% (now eighth most likely).

18^th – Burnley (0-1-2, -4)

Burnley have taken their Europa League run quite seriously and it looks to have taken a toll on their Premier League campaign – they have conceded seven goals in two games to clubs not even considered top four contenders and have not enjoyed the lead for a single moment throughout the season. Considered only a fair chance of relegation alongside Bournemouth and Crystal Palace at the start of the season, they are now sitting in the drop in almost one-in-four futures simulations at 24.3% (fourth most likely). They were the seventh best travelling side in the league last season, so away trips to Wolverhampton and Cardiff present an ideal opportunity to make up some ground, as does a home game against a vulnerable Man United this week. 

19^th – Huddersfield (0-1-2, -8)  

Huddersfield are six points behind their week three position in 2017/18, though their opposition was much stronger this time around. Both Chelsea and Manchester City tore them apart like wings off flies and, though they did hold firm against a Cardiff side who had an extra man on the pitch, one point at home against a fellow relegation contender is not good enough. They too were humbled by a more motivated Championship opposition in the League Cup during the week (Stoke City).

Their first month has solidified their position as a genuine prospect of going down – they now get relegated in 58.3% of season simulations, up from 47.3% at the start of the season. They face two clubs they have never beaten this month – Everton and Tottenham – and will be targeting a home game against Crystal Palace as a realistic possibility for their first win of the season.

20^th – West Ham United (0-0-3, -7)

It’s not yet time for the Hammers to panic, though they have doubled their prospects of relegation with a winless month. That loss at home to Bournemouth will be of much greater concern than away thrashings at the hands of Liverpool and Arsenal. They began last season 0-0-3 managing to concede ten goals in that time (compared with nine this season), so if you’re optimistic you can consider this an improvement… right?

Conceding a second-minute goal to AFC Wimbledon in the League Cup this week would also have been worrying, were it not for the fact a Wimbledon red card helped the Hammers turn it around into a 3-1 win. September will give us a good indication of where West Ham are at this season: they have recent wins at home against Wolves and even Chelsea, who both make trips to the London Stadium.

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