EPL Punting Preview: Week 8
Last updated: Oct 5, 2018, 8:08AM | Published: Oct 5, 2018, 1:52AM
For those of you turning your punting attention to the real football now that the AFL and NRL are over, we've got six key plays from five of this weekend's Premier League fixtures for you to sink your teeth into.
THE GAME: Brighton vs West Ham
WHEN: Sat Oct 6, 2:00am EST
THE PLAY: West Ham-draw double chance (or draw no bet if preferred)
Happy to pot Brighton at home against an opponent who looks to be going much better of late, and encouraged with the 3% in favour of the visitors from the model. Brighton have picked up just two points since that win vs United, and though they’ve had some tough opposition, they had to come from behind against both Fulham and Southampton.
This game could be decided in the first half: Brighton have a first-half goal difference of -4, whereas West Ham’s is +2. With the Hammers having beaten Everton away and then following it up with good performances against Chelsea and United, they look the stronger side and the good price. West Ham 2-1.
THE GAME: Burnley vs Huddersfield
WHEN: Sun Oct 7, 12:00am EST
THE PLAY: Burnley to win
Burnley have frankly looked a more focused, refreshed side since being eliminated from Europa League qualification and 2.10 seems a generous price for them to get the job done against a hapless Huddersfield.
The two sides shared 0-0 draws last season but the Terriers haven’t won at Burnley since 2013 and it’s hard to see where their first win of the season comes from. They have scored in all three away games but have conceded ten in return and Burnley are starting to hit their straps.
With James Tarkowski missing, Huddersfield could find the net again but hard to see them holding Burnley to under 1.5 goals to take any points away. Burnley 2-0.
THE GAME: Crystal Palace v Wolves
WHEN: Sun Oct 7, 12:00am EST
THE PLAY: Under 2.5 goals
Pretty short odds at around the 1.60 mark, and we’re taking some poor value according to the model at this stage (-4%), but this really does shape up as one of the safer bets of the week. The bookies are keeping this one safe with the price.
Let’s keep it simple: five of Palace’s seven games have gone Under and they haven’t scored a goal at home, while Wolves’ last six have also gone Under thanks to three clean sheets from their last four. Not to mention they kept both Manchester sides to a goal apiece. Zaha is looking good now, but with the whole side averaging 11 shots a game, they’ll need to be efficient to get past this Wolves back three.
THE GAME: Southampton vs Chelsea
WHEN: Monday 8 Oct, 12:15am EDT
THE PLAY: Over 2.5 goals / Both Teams to Score
While you’re waiting for the big one on Monday morning, we’ve got some superb value for the goals to flow at St. Mary’s. The boys in blue have fared there quite well recently, winning five of their last seven (D1, L1) at Southampton with five of those games going over 2.5 goals.
Chelsea failed to keep clean sheets against Newcastle and Cardiff so we like the price on offer for a Southampton side that have scored in 4/7 to find the net. We’ve got a +7% edge for the overs and +6% for both to score. Expecting Chelsea to win 2-1 or 3-1. Back both markets and celebrate all goals like a madman. We will be.
THE GAME: Liverpool vs Manchester City
WHEN: Monday 8 Oct, 2:30am EDT
THE PLAY: Over 2.5 goals
What a mouthwatering fixture this is, and for so many reasons. Two sides with blistering attacks and tight defences go head to head. The model finds +4% value in backing over 2.5, and with the last five H2Hs between these two going overs, that’s a good sign.
Liverpool have scored 2+ in 11 of their last 13 PL games at home, Man City 2+ in six of their last seven PL games. They both play 4-3-3 formations with attacking full-backs and with both sides making few changes from their midweek CL fixtures, both back fours are likely to let in at least one each. Hard to pick a winner so I’m sticking with totals.
