EPL Stats Buster: Leading At Christmas - Does It Matter?

It has become a tired cliché. We hear of it at this time of year every single year, from pundits to managers: “Leading at Christmas is crucial for winning an EPL title”. In the UK, the big corporates even offer futures markets on who will top the table on December 25.

Is this finally Liverpool’s year? After Manchester City and Chelsea both "let it slip" with shock defeats at the weekend, the Reds top the table at Christmas for the first time since the infamous season of 2013/14.

Here at Stats Insider, we have been searching for futures value in Premier League markets throughout the season with our “Monthly Movement” segment. As a complement to that, let’s undertake a historical journey through 26 seasons of Premier League football to discover exactly how important it is to be in front at Christmas - or for Champions League aspirants and survival hopefuls, sitting inside the top four and outside the bottom three.

WINNING THE TITLE

Of course, everyone wants to be topping the table on Christmas Day, but is it vital? History shows that at least more recently - it is. 

Since Manchester United fought from as low as tenth early in the season and fourth at Christmas to edge out Aston Villa and Norwich City in the inaugural Premier League season (1992/93), 15 out of 25 titles have been taken out by the club leading on Christmas Day and a further eight by the clubs in second and third. Since the turn of the decade (Christmas Day 2009), the Xmas leaders have gone on to claim the title eight out of nine times - with Manchester City (third) the anomaly in 2013/14. 

Noteworthy but mostly irrelevantly, it hasn’t happened from fourth place since 92/93. Only twice have the winners sat outside the top four on December 25: Man United (fifth) in 1996/97 and Arsenal (sixth) in 1997/98.

Titles won by position on Christmas Day (from 1992/93):

First: 15

Second: 4

Third: 4

Fourth: 1

Fifth: 1

Sixth: 1

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Interestingly, top four at Christmas (or top three from 1998-2001 and in 2011/12) appears to be just as vital for UCL qualification as it does for title aspirations. Since UEFA expanded the Premier League to three CL slots, just 19 out of a total of 76 (25%) CL qualifiers were not in the top three/four on Christmas Day! 

Arsenal are the exceptions to the rule, finishing hard in many a Premier League season: they qualified for the CL from sixth in 1997/98, sixth in 1998/99, fourth in 1999/00, eighth in 2005/06, fifth in 2008/09, fifth in 2011/12 and sixth in 2014/15. 

The record? In 2003/04, Liverpool were ninth on Christmas Day, though it must be pointed out that it was a jam-packed top-half: they were just three points outside of the top four! Their fans will vividly remember their performance in the 2005 Champions League...

Similarly to winning the title from down the table, fewer teams have soared into the top four in recent years after Christmas: only on six occasions has a club made the CL from outside the top four since 2009/10, and from no lower than sixth place. Why is that? Are modern fitness and high-performance programs ensuring that talented teams don’t fade away late in the season? 

Champions League qualification by Christmas Day position (from 1992/93):

First: 22

Second: 21

Third: 16

Fourth:12

Fifth: 7

Sixth: 4

Seventh: 0

Eighth: 1

Ninth: 1

RELEGATION

Conversely, just how important is it to be outside the bottom three on Christmas Day for those clubs hoping to survive? The stats suggest that Fulham are in quite a bit of strife, with only three of the past 20 PL seasons seeing the club at the bottom of the table on Christmas Day wriggling their way out of trouble. 

For the other clubs, the numbers show there is still some hope yet, with 28 of 69 (40.5%) relegated clubs sitting not-so-safely outside the bottom three since the Premier League shifted to a 20-team competition in 1995/96. 

Even mid-table clubs haven’t been immune from dramatic drops: in 1994/95, Norwich were seventh at Christmas and on the verge of a UEFA Cup berth before winning just one of their next 20 fixtures and dropping to 20th on the table!  

Relegation by Christmas Day position (from 20-team comp in 1995/96): 

20th: 20

19th: 11

18th: 10

17th: 9

16th: 7

15th: 2

14th: 7

13th: 1

12th: 2

With the consistency that Jurgen Klopp's men have been displaying this season, it looks as though 2018/19, they deserve to be on level terms with the Cityzens in the futures market. The Stats Insider futures model still has Man City winning the title in 62% of 10,000 simulations, and they are still a high quality unit, so the 1.90-1.95 on offer is almost worth recommending as value. We'll cover that in next month's Monthly Movement!

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