Essendon vs Melbourne Prediction and Odds - AFL Round 5, 2023
Apr 14, 2023, 5:30AM
Essendon faces the favoured Melbourne in AFL Round 5 action at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, beginning at 4:10pm AEST.
Stats Insider's best betting tips for Essendon vs Melbourne, as well as the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are featured below.
Who will win? Essendon vs Melbourne
Using detailed machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated Saturday's Essendon-Melbourne AFL game 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Demons a 71% chance of beating the Bombers at Adelaide Oval.
More: Essendon vs Melbourne Simulated 10K Times
Essendon vs Melbourne AFL Odds
The latest Betfair betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at Adelaide Oval are shown below:
- Head to Head: Essendon $3.60, Melbourne $1.37
- Line: Essendon +21.5 ($1.97), Melbourne -21.5 ($1.92)
- Total (Over/Under 157.5 Points): Over $1.88, Under $2.00
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has Essendon to win at $3.60 and Melbourne to win at $1.37.
The Bombers are listed as 21.5-point underdogs against the Demons, with odds of $1.97 currently on offer at Betfair.
For the favourite Demons (-21.5) to cover the line, Betfair currently has odds of $1.92.
The Over/Under for Essendon vs Melbourne sits at 157.5 with Betfair, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.88 and odds for the Under at $2.00.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Bombers (+21.5) have a 57% chance of covering the line, while the Over/Under total of 157.5 points is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
More: Live Win Probabilities for All Sports
Essendon vs Melbourne AFL Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Melbourne at $1.37 with Betfair (71% probability)
- Line: Essendon +21.5 at $1.97 with Betfair (57% probability) 🔥
- Total Points: Under 157.5 at $2.00 with Betfair (50% probability)
Every time you see a 🔥, that means you've found one of our best bets for today across all sports.
Today's Essendon vs Melbourne predictions are based on detailed simulations and wagering experience to help you place smarter bets with your chosen online bookie.
Essendon vs Melbourne Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Essendon vs Melbourne at Adelaide Oval on Saturday has Melbourne winning 89-74.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
For more information, click or tap See Matchup.
Stats Insider has full betting coverage of Essendon vs Melbourne on Saturday, including pre-match predictions, expert tips, and live win probabilities.
Essendon vs Melbourne Goal Scorers
Looking for Essendon vs Melbourne goal kicker tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Melbourne's Kysaiah Pickett is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Essendon vs Melbourne.
Pickett has a 6.8% chance of kicking the first goal at Adelaide Oval, while the Demons star has an 83.5% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for the complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Essendon
- Jake Stringer: 6.1% probability
- Kyle Langford: 4.5% probability
- Jye Menzie: 4.4% probability
- Archie Perkins: 4.0% probability
- Nic Martin: 3.3% probability
Melbourne
- Kysaiah Pickett: 6.8% probability
- Bayley Fritsch: 6.6% probability
- Ben Brown: 6.1% probability
- Jacob van Rooyen: 5.1% probability
- Tom McDonald: 5.0% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Essendon
- Jake Stringer: 80.3% probability
- Jye Menzie: 68.6% probability
- Kyle Langford: 68.5% probability
- Archie Perkins: 65.7% probability
- Nic Martin: 57.2% probability
Melbourne
- Kysaiah Pickett: 83.5% probability
- Bayley Fritsch: 83.4% probability
- Ben Brown: 80.9% probability
- Jacob van Rooyen: 75.0% probability
- Tom McDonald: 72.2% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so bookmark this page for the latest betting analysis before the Essendon vs Melbourne match at Adelaide Oval.
As always, see our Best Bets to get betting tips for every AFL match, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: AFL Player Ratings 2023
Essendon vs Melbourne AFL 2023
The AFL Round 5 clash between the Bombers and Demons at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to start at 4:10pm AEST on Saturday.
- Game: Essendon vs Melbourne
- Date: Saturday 15 April 2023
- Time: 4:10pm AEST
- Venue: Adelaide Oval
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise noted.
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