Essendon’s 2020 Death Spiral Is Complete

During the second quarter of Essendon's despondent, likely season-ending loss to St. Kilda, the Bombers had one of the least dominant patches of dominance you will see.

After being completely over-run in the first quarter, Essendon started to control territory and create repeat inside-50 entries. The entries were so tame, however, almost impossibly tame, that there was no sense of 'siege' for the St. Kilda defence, just a sense of good uncontested marking practice.

It was fitting that after the Bombers failed to capitalise on the first stretch of the game when they were merely poor and not comically bad, that St. Kilda immediately slingshotted with a blitz of goals that would make the scoreboard deficit unbearable.

The Saints played with fluency and speed, while Essendon played infuriatingly slowly, completely devoid of rhythm or ideas. St. Kilda did not do anything revolutionary - they merely ran forward with the ball in hand and then kicked to players in front of them. These concepts were foreign to Essendon.

Every Essendon build-up was the same - a long, high kick out of defence to the boundary. If they managed to get possession on the wing, the next move was a long, high kick to shallow forward-50. Such ball movement is poor at the best of times, and Essendon weren't kicking long to Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy, they were kicking to Shaun McKernan and James Stewart. The Bombers had three contested marks on the day - one each for noted target men Matt Guelfi, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Marty Gleeson.

At the other end, Rowan Marshall and Max King, who dominated early, had six contested marks between them. Add in the threats of Tim Membrey and Paddy Ryder and St. Kildacontrolled the air all day.

The Bombers won the battle in clearances and territory, and had more of the ball, but the complete impotence going forward rendered those advantages meaningless. The Bombers scored from just 19% of forward 50 entries (the lowest mark on the season), while the Saints, with their quick movement and targets in attack, scored from 43% of entries.

RELATED: Centre Bounce Attendances: Who’s Driving Your Club’s Engine Room?

Going into 2020, Essendon's three most dangerous forwards loomed as Joe Daniher, Jake Stringer and Orazio Fantasia, none of whom played on the weekend.

The option of Cale Hooker swinging forward might have ranked as the fourth most threatening option, and he didn't play either. Also missing were Devon Smith, Dyson Heppell, Patrick Ambrose, Aaron Francis, Mason Redman, Jayden Laverde, David Zaharakisand Tom Bellchambers. A case could be made that Essendon were missing literally half of its first-choice team against St. Kilda while playing on a four-day break- their third game in nine days.

Omg! Have you seen the injuries at Essendon. They have more then Collingwood! Just unlucky.

— Daniel Joyce (@djoyce03) August 17, 2020

In that context the result against the Saints is more explainable, but no less bleak to ingest. This was Essendon's 2020 on the line and they were without verve or desperation. It was jarring to see how difficult it was for them to move the ball at the most basic level. 

Even from turnovers in the corridor they could generate nothing. At one point Brad Hill fumbled in the middle of the ground, killing a St. Kilda attack and Zach Merrett found the ball. You've seen this play so many times before - the team that forces the turnover suddenly has an acre of space and they stream inside-50 with advantage one-on-ones everywhere. But not for Essendon. Merrett looked up after the turnover and had nowhere to go.

The occasions that Essendon did try to change their movement ended catastrophically. A simple switch in defensive-50 ended in Jordan Ridley spraying an uncontested kick out of bounds on the full in the pocket. Another attempted switch from Josh Begley led to an uncontested Saints mark in front of goal. It was, truly, a complete mess.

Essendon competed from time to time. They won the ball at stoppages. They just had no run, and no ideas. 

Dylan Shiel was tireless, hitting the drop of the ball and powering away from clearances as he always does. He ran hard and tried to be every part of the chain himself because there was no next part of the chain otherwise.

Michael Hurley is gallant, Andrew McGrath is excellent, and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti is a marvellous player in hopeless surrounds. Zach Merrett is fantastic, though he looks classier than he is - he has a tendency to deliver sumptuous passes straight to opponents.

RELATED: The GWS Giants Are Always Crashing In The Same Car

There is no more hope for Essendon in 2020. They’re only, somehow, one game out of the eight but with a closing stretch that includes Richmond, West Coast, Geelong, Port Adelaide and Melbourne, there is almost certainly no path into finals.

Given the injury chaos, missing the eight isn’t a disaster. “Non-disaster” seasons, though, aren’t the bar to clear for a team that famously hasn’t won a final since 2005.

Even if Daniher is gone at year’s end, the Bombers have more talent on their list than the dire sentiment that surrounds the team might imply. 

Hooker and Hurley are edging deeper into their thirties, yet Shiel, Merrett, Smith, McGrath, Saad, McKenna, Ridley, Stringer, Fantasia and McDonald-Tipungwuti will all still be in their primes or prime-adjacent next season. 

This is a solid core, although almost depressingly solid – the team is crying out for a star forward and a star midfielder to add to its strong back six. 

More than anything, the Bombers are crying out for new ideas and new life. Their fans will hope that Ben Rutten can provide that – something new, and for the first time in 16 years, something different. 

Did you enjoy this article? Join our free mailing list to get the best content delivered straight to your inbox, or join the conversation by leaving a comment below or on the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page.