Examining Stats Insider's Grass World Rankings Before Wimbledon

Stats Insider’s grass tennis rankings create a delicious conversation before Wimbledon.

Who are the best grass-court tennis players in the world? A few obvious answers stand out: Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams. Beyond them, however? It’s an endless field of mystery and uncertainty, which is why the 2021 Wimbledon tournament is going to be so richly fascinating.

Yes, Roger Federer is one of the all-time greats on grass. Stats Insider has him second – behind Djokovic – in its grass-specific ATP player rankings heading into Wimbledon. On a broader level, no one can really argue with that ranking, since surface-specific rankings flow from surface-specific performance. Given that Djokovic beat Federer in the final of the last Wimbledon tournament that was played (in 2019), it seems obvious that Djokovic and Federer should be ranked 1 and 2, respectively. It makes complete sense.

Yet, Federer’s conspicuous decision to withdraw from Roland Garros after winning a third-round match – in order to preserve his body and not overextend himself – raised a big, red, flashing sign of alarm on the path to ‘SW19’. Federer signalled that his body doesn’t have the same powers of restoration it possessed in his resurgent 2017 season. This recuperation from two knee surgeries just before turning 40 years old is going very slowly, much slower than his injury rehab in early 2017, when he stormed the gate and won a succession of big tournaments (Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami).

Based on previous grass performance, yes, Federer definitely should be No. 2 in the world on lawns, but given his physical condition, he doesn’t seem remotely ready to endure the strain of two full weeks against younger players who can hit the stuffing out of the ball. Federer could be able to get through Week 1, but a top-20 player in Week 2 might be too much for him to overcome.

What is true of Federer, relative to Stats Insider’s grass-specific player rankings, is true of other players who will compete at Wimbledon.

2017 runner-up Marin Cilic is rated third by Stats Insider. Based on what we have seen in the past – with lots of good showings at Wimbledon warm-up tournaments, plus some quarterfinal results at the Big W and that aforementioned 2017 run to the final – it makes total sense to put Cilic third, especially with Rafael Nadal not competing in this year’s Championships. Yet, what happened in the past might not translate to 2021. Credentials, as in Federer’s case, might not matter. The Cilic of 2021 is in a different, and darker, place than he was a few years ago.

We can say the same for Andy Murray, ranked fifth. 

We can say the same for 2019 Wimbledon semifinalist Roberto Bautista Agut, ranked sixth on grass by Stats Insider. 

We can say the same for No. 7 grass player John Isner.

(Milos Raonic is No. 4. His case is different. Raonic seems to be perpetually injured, his body made of glass. If healthy, Raonic – the 2016 Wimbledon runner-up – is always capable of doing damage on this surface.)

So many players who have achieved strong results on grass two to four years ago – and who therefore deserve the grass-specific ranking Stats Insider has bestowed on them – are nevertheless in a different place this year.

This leads to an obvious point we can’t simply ignore when considering the quality of a grass-court tennis player in 2021: Wimbledon wasn’t played last year. 

The other three majors were, but Wimbledon wasn’t. There was no grass season in 2020, meaning that the two tours – ATP and WTA – are sorely out of practice on grass. There is a big, gaping void between the 2019 grass season and this one. Moreover, this year features a two-week gap between Roland Garros and Wimbledon, instead of the normal three-week break instituted in 2015. Players recuperating from clay season have had a much shorter turnaround time, which invites volatility at Wimbledon.

Matteo Berrettini is ranked No. 9 on grass by Stats Insider. He has reached the fourth round at Wimbledon, so that ranking seems entirely reasonable. Berrettini then won the title at Queen’s Club to boost his grass resume even more. Yet, will he be mentally refreshed for Wimbledon, or will his accumulation of tennis in recent weeks – Madrid final, Roland Garros quarterfinals, Queen’s title – leave him overcooked at the All-England Club? The shorter time window between Paris and Wimbledon is a big variable which is hard to comfortably assess in its impact on the field. Previewing the men’s Wimbledon tournament this year (which I will do in a separate article at Stats Insider) has to account for this reality.

Kevin Anderson – largely on the strength of his 2018 Wimbledon final – is No. 12 in Stats Insider’s ATP grass-specific rankings. He also falls into that same large bucket of players who deserve the grass rankings they have, but who might not be able to live up to that ranking this year at Wimbledon. “Kando” hasn’t been the same player after some injuries and the pandemic interruption. Restarting the engine has been a problem for him and plenty of other veteran players. 

Speaking of veteran players: Feliciano Lopez, Richard Gasquet, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – who have all made the second week of Wimbledon (Gasquet and Tsonga reached the semifinals) – are in the top 20 based on career-long grass performance. Yet, they are also in positions where living up to past accomplishments and performing at a standard suggested by their career-long credentials will be very difficult. 

A lot of older male tennis players deserve their Stats Insider grass rankings, but will find it hard to back up those rankings at Wimbledon.

Now, let’s turn to the women’s side.

Of course – and without any debate – Serena Williams is No. 1 in Stats Insider’s grass-specific WTA player rankings. Serena, like Djokovic, is an obvious No. 1 choice. That’s the easy part. As soon as one gets past that, however, everything gets complicated. There are certainly some parallels with men’s tennis in this regard. 

Angelique Kerber is the No. 2 player in Stats Insider’s grass-specific player rankings. Simona Halep is third. Kerber and Halep defeated Serena in the last two Wimbledon women’s singles finals, so of course they have earned their rankings. Yet, Kerber is currently searching for a spark. Halep – injured late in the clay season and unable to contend at Roland Garros (where she had a real chance to make a run at the title) – is a total mystery heading to suburban London. 

Jo Konta, a former Wimbledon semifinalist who reached the quarterfinals in 2019, is No. 4 in Stats Insider’s grass rankings. She is another player who has not been able to find a groove since the pandemic interrupted global tennis last year. The credentials are there; current form is not. 

Petra Kvitova, No. 5 in Stats Insider’s rankings, is always capable of soaring at the All-England Club. She owns two Wimbledon titles and can certainly win a third. Is she underrated in these rankings? Maybe… but one has to realise that she hasn’t returned to the Wimbledon final since 2014. If she wants to rise in the Stats Insider grass rankings, it’s really rather simple: She needs to flourish in the coming fortnight at SW19.

Ashleigh Barty checks in at No. 7 on grass. Let’s be blunt here: Barty’s Round-of-16 loss to Alison Riske at Wimbledon in 2019 kept her from moving up the board. If she had reached a semifinal, she would almost certainly be in the top five. If she had made the final, she would probably be in the top three. Barty – like Halep – was injured during the clay season. Her health situation makes her another highly mysterious figure at this upcoming Wimbledon tournament.

After Barty at No. 7 in Stats Insider’s grass-specific WTA rankings, the next several players are complete question marks.

Karolina Pliskova – a former major finalist – is No. 8. Coco Vandeweghe has made multiple Wimbledon quarterfinals. She's back on tour after some injury woes and is No. 9. Belinda Bencicmade the U.S. Open semifinals in 2019 and is No. 10. Madison Keys has reached a major final and multiple major semifinals. She is No. 11. Alison Riske, who knocked off Barty two years ago at Wimbledon, is No. 12 and a noted grass-court upset artist. Jelena Ostapenko, who made the Wimbledon semifinals in 2018, is No. 13. Victoria Azarenka, who hasn’t made the semis of Wimbledon since 2012 but reached the U.S. Open final last September in New York, is a very dangerous No. 16 in the SI grass rankings. These players are anything but consistent, and several of them have been brutally unlucky in terms of injuries, but a fluid and chaotic Wimbledon gives each of them a chance to do something special this coming fortnight.

The final player worth mentioning in the top 20 of Stats Insider’s grass-specific WTA player rankings is Garbine Muguruza. In describing that bunch of players from No. 8-16, I said they are not consistent but have a chance to do something special.

Doesn’t that represent a neat and tidy summary of Muguruza’s career? Hampered by injury at Roland Garros – much like Ash Barty – Muguruza’s health entering Wimbledon is a vast ocean of uncertainty… but if he is in fact healthy enough to swing freely, no one would want to see her in their part of the draw.

The bottom line: Stats Insider’s grass player rankings make total sense… but will anyone other than Novak Djokovic manage to live up to those rankings at this 2021 Wimbledon tournament? Given that the two tours went 23 months without playing on grass, fragility seems to be the prevailing theme this year at the All-England Club.

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