Explaining the AFL Coaching House of Cards

A couple of weeks ago Stats Insider’s data guru, Greg Butyn, gave birth to his demonic, but ever-so-cool baby which we named 'The Sackometer'.

As cousins, aunties, sisters and step-fathers of the ground-breaking new tool, we gaze down proudly at the little one and marvel at its ingenuity within a sports analytics landscape rather lacking where sophisticated coaching assessment is concerned.

Just two weeks after being bought into this world, 'the Sacko' - as we call it internally - has already claimed its first victim, with Brad Scott and North Melbourne confirming their separation from one another over the weekend.

Despite Sacko very much forecasting this tension, the AFL has for the most part been living in a state of relative tranquillity for quite a while now, with Scott’s exit possibly being the first of many coaching changes within the league in 2019/20.

This is a competition where stability has reigned stubbornly supreme with ‘continuity’ the buzziest of AFL buzzwords.

In this conservative environment, clubs are preferring to stick with their head coaches with a lot more gusto amid a series of bad losses (or in Carlton’s case, many, many, many bad losses) rather than terminate the appointment and be responsible for an unwanted payout and damage inflicted on the AFL ‘soft cap’, all the while starting a coaching search anew.

Clubs are also likely cognizant of the fact that there’s a shortage of ‘can't-miss,’ ‘must-hire,’ proven candidates out there as a result of the league’s relative stasis.

By looking across the current coaching landscape there are precious few coaches who one could say with certainty will be wearing their current club’s polo top next season.

In fact, by my count, there are just seven coaches who are absolute locks to be in their position come AFL 2020. Those would be: Nathan Buckley, Adam Simpson, Leon Cameron, Damien Hardwick, Chris Scott, Stuart Dew and Chris Fagan.

That means there’s a serious level of combustibility amongst almost two-thirds of the entire AFL coaching workforce.

Which mean’s Brad Scott’s exit might be just the start.

With all that said, let’s bring in the Sackometer for a quick reading of the tea leaves for the 11 clubs who might play a part in the impending mayhem.

ADELAIDE Crows

Background: A shadow of the team which contested the 2017 Grand Final, with an attack that’s completely fallen from its lofty heights.

SACKOMETER SAYS: Don Pyke was actually Sacko’s biggest tumbler last week and is now seen as the 6^th highest coach under pressure.

PREDICTION: Five different coaches have already been at the helm of the Crows this decade, and despite how rough things have been post-2017, I say the crows give Pyke at least one more year at the helm.

CARLTON Blues

Background: Losses. Lots of them. The Brendan Bolton appointment has been an unmitigated disaster that is showing no signs of being overturned. He has a 16-60 record for a strike rate of 21.05% making him the least successful coach in Carlton’s 120-year history.

SACKOMETER SAYS: Bolton’s seat isn’t as red-hot as you might think, thanks to the Blues performances against bookmaker’s expectations. Sacko is full of surprises.

PREDICTION: It’s simply a matter of time before the rug is finally pulled from under Bolton’s feet.

NEXT COACH: Brett Ratten. In 2012, Carlton ill-advisedly sacked the best coach they’ve had since the David Parkin Premiership era. Could they go back to the same man who’s regarded as one of the AFL’s very best football minds? Would Ratten want to?

ESSENDON Bombers

Background: When the 2019 season concludes, it'll be yet another year that Essendon have failed to win a single AFL Finals match. That's 15 and counting for those playing at home.

SACKOMETER SAYS: Worsfold should think about reigniting his pharmaceutical career should Essendon’s struggles continue.

PREDICTION: Essendon have bled money over the years, and despite the AFL’s seeming intent to provide the club with each and every marquee fixture on the calendar, the Bombers really can’t afford to part ways with Worsfold, who is contracted through 2020. Plus - and maybe it’s just me - Worsfold doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who’d take well to being fired.

FREMANTLE Dockers

Background: Ross Lyon has coached more games than any other Fremantle lead man and overseen more than twice as many AFL Finals as the next bloke. With that said, the Dockers have missed September in three straight seasons and are having yet another run of the mill campaign.

SACKOMETER SAYS: Outside of the seven coaches that are locked in to return next season, Ross is actually rather safe.

PREDICTION: Make the Finals and Ross won’t be tossed. Miss and he could be dismissed.

HAWTHORN Hawks

Background: Alistair Clarkson has won 4 AFL Premierships as coach of the Hawks, and you could mount a reasonable argument that he’s the best coach in the history of the game considering the era he’s worked in. With that said, the Hawks haven’t seemed so mediocre and absent from genuine contention in quite some time.

SACKOMETER SAYS: The coaching legend is in relative strife with only four coaches under more pressure, thanks to performance against implied expectation.

PREDICTION: Whatever Clarkson wants, Clarkson gets. If a team like Carlton or Melbourne or the Roos put some kind of crazy offer in front of him, an offer Clarkson thought would make for a good football situation, then he might consider leaving. Then again, from a football resource perspective, Clarkson likely knows that he’s just about in the best environment he could wish for.

MELBOURNE Demons

Background: Only the Australian Labor party has had a more disappointing 2019 than the Melbourne Football Club. Considered Premiership fancies far and wide heading into the season, the Demons have won just three of their first ten games while only the Gold Coast Suns have a worse percentage.

SACKOMETER SAYS: Goodwin beware! Sacko agrees that Melbourne’s performances in 2019 have been so dreadful that Goodwin should be feeling some serious heat.

PREDICTION: Simon Goodwin has a winning record as coach of the Demons which isn’t something any Melbourne coach can claim since John Northey in the late eighties and early nineties. If Melbourne sack him, it would be a pitiful move.

NORTH MELBOURNE Kangaroos

Background: It was revealed over the weekend that the decade-long relationship between the Roos and Brad Scott had come to an end. The best part of the severing of ties was the particularly civil way it was handled by both sides which really should be studied by all clubs as a lesson in handling a break-up.

SACKOMETER SAYS: “I told you so”

PREDICTION: North does get a head start on its coaching search and will target everyone from John Longmire to Pep Guardiola. This will be in concert with the way they pursue free agents and very often ends in tears. Ultimately, Longmire and Clarkson will both knock the Roos back.

NEXT COACH: With Clarkson’s blessing and suggestion that he has no intention of handing over the reins at Hawthorn, Sam Mitchell becomes the next North Melbourne coach. If not Mitchell, perhaps Michael Voss?

PORT ADELAIDE Power

Background: I saw a cool tweet over the weekend that suggested the Power was having its fifth consecutive identical season. As Homer Simpson would say, ‘its funny because it’s true.’ Every year the Power start well, we all write complimentary articles and then they fall apart. It’s the Alberton treadmill... and it drives everyone crazy.

SACKOMETER SAYS: Ken could get canned. Sacko has been so unimpressed by the Power in 2019 that Hinkley is presently the most likely coach to join Brad Scott in the unemployment line.

PREDICTION: Despite another sour season, Ken Hinkley is a really good coach and an excellent front-man for any club. I think he stays.

ST KILDA Saints

Background: No coach came into 2019 season under more scrutiny than Alan Richardson, and considering the circumstances, it could be argued that no coach has done a better job than him. The Saints are playing with one of the least experienced, and - due to a dearth of injuries - least talented teams. Yet, Richardson has his charges playing tough, competitive football week in, week out. After ten rounds the Saints are 5-5 and out of the eight by percentage only.

SACKOMETER SAYS: Of all the coaches outside the ‘Safe Seven’ Richo’s stock had the biggest bump-up over the weekend thanks to the Saints’ win over the Blues.

PREDICTION: Above the office of Stats Insider here in Collingwood, there resides a market research firm. More importantly, they have a two-year-old Labrador named Digby. He’s absolutely beautiful and even he knows Brad Scott and St Kilda honcho, Simon Lethlean, have the hots for one another.

2020 Coach: Brad Scott. Uh oh, Richo.

SYDNEY Swans

Background: The Swans are the San Antonio Spurs of the AFL. Competitive just about every single year with an admirable culture that has been the driving force behind making 15 of the past 16 AFL Finals series, as well as winning a couple of Premierships in the process. With all that said, the Swans have won just three games this year, are 15^th on the ladder and won't be playing Finals in 2019.

SACKOMETER SAYS: Despite all the credits Longmire has built up, the Swans performances in 2019 are concerning enough to place his job in some jeopardy.

PREDICTION: Like Clarkson at the Hawks, this will be about what Longmire wants and which ultimately might come down to a choice between staying with the Swans or taking on the North Melbourne project. I say he chooses Sydney.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Background: In case you missed it from the fact that I slip in into every single piece of content I write, the Bulldogs won the AFL Premiership in 2016. They did. And I think about it every single day. It’s a beautiful reality. Another reality is that the Dogs have been pretty much awful since that triumph, with 2019 yet another season where the Dogs won’t be within a sniff of September. The even grimmer reality is that this season the Bulldogs have already lost to Gold Coast, Carlton and now North Melbourne, and the season isn't even at the halfway mark.

SACKOMETER SAYS: Be careful Mr Beveridge. Sacko didn’t take well to the Dogs losing to North as betting favourites, and has now placed him below St Kilda’s Richardson, who of course went into season 2019 with a veritable blowtorch in his face.

PREDICTION: Luke Beveridge will be coaching the Dogs in season 2020…. unless another club makes an audacious play for his services.

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