Predicting the Big Bash League champion at the start of the season always feels like a lottery. By the end of the regular season it’s still tough to identify a winner, with only one minor premier in nine seasons going on to win the Final.

At this time of the season it’s easy to get seduced by the talent on paper. Some teams appear to have recruited very well, while others will be blessed by the availability of their international players for longer this summer thanks to no further T20Is or ODIs.

A team on paper is one thing, yet there are trends across the nine seasons of the BBL which shed plenty of light on what goes into winning a BBL championship, and which might provide a clue as to who’s best positioned to take out season 10's crown.

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Over the BBL’s first decade, the Perth Scorchers collected the most titles, bringing home three championships to WA, and contesting a further two finales. Seldom did they enter a campaign as title favourites during their dominant period. While the Scorchers have missed the past two finals series, their highly-commended culture and attention to detail held up strongly under current Australia coach Justin Langer, and appears to be in good hands under Adam Voges who captained the club from 2014-18.

Last season’s champions, the Sydney Sixers, are two-time winners but have also made the Grand Final four times from six finals campaigns under the stewardship of the experienced, and extremely well respected pair Trevor Bayliss and Greg Shipperd.

It’s of course an impossible task to define the ingredients that contribute to a club’s winning culture, but one strong trend that's held up is coaching continuity along with being able to tailor your campaign to peak at the right time. 

While we alluded to Perth and the Sixers success with the likes of Langer, Bayliss and Shipperd at the helm, it’s also worth noting how sharp the Adelaide Strikers have been since Jason Gillespie’s arrival in 2015. The South Australians have already collected a minor premiership and overall championship under his watch, and figure to be a serious threat once again this season.

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Peaking At The Right Time

As mentioned earlier, finishing top has definitely not been an indicator for finals success in the BBL. Only one side, the Scorchers in BBL|06, have managed it. It’s in fact reasonable to say the minor premiership has been something of a poisoned chalice.

The most winning side in round robin/home-and-away BBL cricket is the Melbourne Stars with a 50-35 record from their 85 matches, which equates to a robust 58.82% strike-rate. That slips to 54.64% once their dreadful 3-9 finals record is factored in. The Stars have made more finals series than any BBL club, yet they've also lost more finals matches than any club and lost all three of Grand Finals they made. Despite being the most winning regular season side, they’re one of only two clubs not to win a BBL title, alongside the Hurricanes, who’ve been runners-up twice.

Looking beyond the obvious Stars choking connotations, this trend is worth further consideration. 

The period of duration of the BBL often means the make-up of regular season sides is different to that come finals time, with player availability changing. Typically, the Test schedule is complete by BBL Finals time, freeing up some players at the right time, such as Shaun Marsh for the Scorchers in the past, or the Sixers with Steve Smith and Josh Hazlewood last season. 

However, Australian international white-ball cricket often clashes with BBL finals in late January and early February, denying other clubs access to their limited overs guns, which has been seen with Glenn Maxwell at the Stars for example.

Peaking at the right time is crucial (particularly now the BBL is a 14-round season) and comes down not simply to orchestrating one's form, but also through judicious recruitment around availability. It's also interesting to note that there will be no Australian international cricket during BBL finals, with the proposed NZ series cancelled to give the BBL some air.

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Where are we now?

According to Stats Insider's Futures Model, early-season favouritism rests with the Melbourne Stars who enjoy a 23.2% chance of lifting their maiden championship. Aforementioned clubs with winning cultures also are firmly in the mix, with the Scorchers, Strikers and Sixers all boasting at least a 65% chance of qualifying for the Finals once again.

Presently, it's the Brisbane Heat and Sydney Thunder who are considered this season's long-shots with a 3.6% and 4.7% championship shot respectively. 

It's of course however very much early days where this season's competition is concerned, with plenty of more water to still go under the bridge.

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