Falcons vs Colts Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 16, 2023

Last updated: Dec 24, 2023, 6:02PM | Published: Dec 19, 2023, 6:11AM

The Atlanta Falcons will face the Indianapolis Colts in NFL Week 16 action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Monday, commencing at 5:00am AEDT.

Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Falcons vs Colts game, as well as the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips, are featured below.

Who Will Win: Falcons vs Colts

Using state-of-the-art computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Monday's Atlanta-Indianapolis NFL match-up 10,000 times.

Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Falcons a 59% chance of defeating the Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

More: Falcons vs Colts Match Centre

Falcons vs Colts: Odds

The current Betfair betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium are shown below:

Head to Head: Falcons $1.71, Colts $2.38
Line: Falcons -2.5 ($1.87), Colts +2.5 ($2.08)
Total (Over/Under 44.5 Points): Over $2.04, Under $1.94

Odds via Betfair are correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has the Falcons at $1.71 and the Colts at $2.38.

The Falcons are 2.5-point favourites against the Colts, with odds of $1.87 currently available at Betfair.

For the underdog Colts (+2.5) to cover the line, Betfair currently has odds of $2.08.

The Over/Under for total points scored is set at 44.5 with Betfair, which currently has odds for the Over at $2.04 and odds for the Under at $1.94.

According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Colts (+2.5) have a 51% chance of covering the line, while the Over/Under total of 44.5 points has a 52% chance of staying Under.

The best site for placing bets on the Falcons vs Colts game is Betfair, where you are able to bet against other sports fans instead of using a traditional bookmaker.

More: Super Bowl Probabilities and Odds

Falcons vs Colts: Best Bets

Head to Head: Indianapolis at $2.38 with Betfair (0.1% edge)
Line: Colts +2.5 at $2.08 with Betfair (51% probability)
Total Points: Under 44.5 at $1.94 with Betfair (52% probability)

Our Falcons vs Colts predictions are based on world-class modelling and betting experience to provide you with the best possible advice around the clock.

While the Falcons have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Colts to win is our preferred option due to the edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.

Making use of the edges published here at Stats Insider is one of the keys to being profitable in the long run.

What could be better than using one of the world's top predictive analytics models to bet on the NFL? Now, you can use this helpful information to give you an edge when betting on something not to happen.

Before you get started, explore our comprehensive guide to lay betting on Betfair in Australia for expert tips and insights.

Falcons vs Colts: Prediction

Stats Insider's predicted final score for Falcons vs Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 16 has the Falcons winning 23-21.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Stats Insider has full coverage of Atlanta vs Indianapolis in Week 16, including pre-game predictions, the best betting tips, and live win probabilities.

Falcons vs Colts: TD Scorer Tips

Who will score an anytime touchdown in Falcons vs Colts? The data is in.

According to Stats Insider, Atlanta's Bijan Robinson is the most likely player to score the first touchdown in Falcons vs Colts.

Robinson has a 12.1% chance of getting in for six first at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the Falcons RB has a 49.1% chance of registering an anytime touchdown.

Scroll down for the complete list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.

First Touchdown Scorer Tips

Falcons First TD Tips

Bijan Robinson: 12.1% probability
Drake London: 9.0% probability
Tyler Allgeier: 7.3% probability
Cordarrelle Patterson: 5.9% probability
Kyle Pitts: 5.4% probability

Colts First TD Tips

Jonathan Taylor: 10.6% probability
Josh Downs: 7.5% probability
Alec Pierce: 6.3% probability
D.J. Montgomery: 3.5% probability
Kylen Granson: 3.5% probability

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips

Falcons Anytime TD Tips

Bijan Robinson: 49.1% probability
Drake London: 38.2% probability
Tyler Allgeier: 31.3% probability
Cordarrelle Patterson: 26.3% probability
Kyle Pitts: 25.6% probability

Colts Anytime TD Tips

Jonathan Taylor: 44.6% probability
Josh Downs: 32.5% probability
Alec Pierce: 29.4% probability
D.J. Montgomery: 17.0% probability
Kylen Granson: 16.7% probability

Falcons-Colts Projected Player Stats

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Falcons' Taylor Heinicke is projected for 232 passing yards. The Colts' Gardner Minshew is expected to throw for 248 yards.

Falcons Starting QB

Taylor Heinicke: 232 projected passing yards

Colts Starting QB

Gardner Minshew: 248 projected passing yards

Falcons Rushing Yards

Bijan Robinson: 59 projected yards
Tyler Allgeier: 41 projected yards
Cordarrelle Patterson: 17 projected yards

Colts Rushing Yards

Jonathan Taylor: 84 projected yards
Trey Sermon: 15 projected yards
Gardner Minshew: 9 projected yards

Falcons Receiving Yards

Drake London: 56 projected yards
Kyle Pitts: 35 projected yards
Bijan Robinson: 24 projected yards
Jonnu Smith: 21 projected yards
Scott Miller: 20 projected yards

Colts Receiving Yards

Josh Downs: 60 projected yards
Alec Pierce: 52 projected yards
D.J. Montgomery: 32 projected yards
Jonathan Taylor: 29 projected yards
Kylen Granson: 20 projected yards

Our model updates regularly, so bookmark this page for the latest betting tips before the Atlanta vs Indianapolis match-up at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips for every NFL game, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.

Falcons vs Colts: Week 16 Preview

The NFL Week 16 match-up between the Falcons and Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to begin at 5:00am AEDT on Monday.

Teams: Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts
Date: Monday 25 December 2023
Time: 5:00am AEDT
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) unless otherwise stated.

Our Atlanta vs Indianapolis predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.

If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.