FIFA World Cup 2022 Final Best Bets: Anytime Goal Scorer
Last updated: Dec 20, 2022, 3:37PM | Published: Dec 17, 2022, 5:59PM
The World Cup 2022 final is set to feature a host of superstar attacking players, including Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi, and Stats Insider has determined just how likely each of them is to score.
Using the powerful predictive analytics model here at Stats Insider, we have found the best any time goal scorer bets to make on the World Cup final between Argentina and France, with odds thanks to Betfair.
RELATED: FIFA World Cup Best Bets for Argentina vs France
World Cup Final: Anytime Goal Scorer Prediction
The most likely anytime goal scorers for both France and Argentina are listed below.
According to Stats Insider, Lionel Messi is the most likely player to score the first goal in France vs Argentina.
Messi has a 13.6% chance of scoring the first goal at Lusail Iconic Stadium, while the Argentina star has a 29.6% chance of netting an anytime goal (excl. ET and penalty shootout).
Back: Julian Alvarez to score
Since taking over from Lautaro Martínez as Argentina's starting central striker, Julian Alvarez has scored four goals in four games, including a double against Croatia in the semi-final.
Now, as we look ahead to the final against France, Alvarez is the second most likely player to score, behind only Lionel Messi.
With an anytime goal probability of 24.4%, we are getting a 3.6% edge on the $4.80 back odds available on the Betfair Exchange.
Back: Julian Alvarez to score anytime ($4.80)
🔻 ❌ | A guide to Lay Betting pic.twitter.com/fxDPEuxCcb
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Lay: Olivier Giroud to score
On the surface, it may seem crazy to lay France's all-time leading goal scorer in the World Cup Final, but this is from the same model that had a lay bet on Germany to reach the latter stages of the tournament.
Olivier Giroud has scored four goals so far this tournament, but failed to score in the semi-final against Morocco where he was subbed off in the 65th minutes.
With Kylian Mbappe the most likely French player to score, our 21.7% anytime goal probability for Giroud means we are getting a 3.2% edge on lay odds of $5.40 on the Betfair Exchange.
Watch for line movements with this one, and jump on when you can.
Lay: Olivier Giroud to score anytime ($5.40)
| Player | Anytime Goal Prob. | SI Fair Odds | Betfair Back Odds |
| Lionel Messi (ARG) | 29.6% | $3.38 | $3.05 |
| Julián Álvarez (ARG) | 24.4% | $4.09 | $4.80 |
| Kylian Mbappé (FRA) | 22.7% | $4.40 | $3.55 |
| Olivier Giroud (FRA) | 21.7% | $4.60 | $4.20 |
| Antoine Griezmann (FRA) | 15.5% | $6.46 | $7.00 |
| Ousmane Dembélé (FRA) | 10.2% | $9.78 | $8.60 |
| Alexis Mac Allister (ARG) | 9.2% | $10.82 | $8.80 |
| Leandro Paredes (ARG) | 6.8% | $14.79 | $11.50 |
| Rodrigo De Paul (ARG) | 6.0% | $16.56 | $13 |
| Adrien Rabiot (FRA) | 5.1% | $19.53 | $15 |
All probabilities based on expected starting lineups, Betfair odds correct as of 2:00am AEDT on Sunday 18 December, 2022.
MORE: Argentina vs France World Cup prediction
Where to bet on World Cup?
If you're looking to bet on FIFA World Cup 2022 using the information above, the best place to do is with Betfair, where you can both back and lay every market across the board throughout the tournament.
All dates and times in this article are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) unless otherwise noted.
More About World Cup 2022
Stats Insider is your home for betting on the World Cup 2022, with the latest World Cup 2022 betting news, predictions for every World Cup 2022 gameand futures odds for every stage of the World Cup 2022.
Want to use this free information and start betting on the World Cup 2022? Betfair has the best range of markets for the World Cup 2022.
(Photo by Maja Hitij - FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
