FIFA World Cup 2022: How the Betfair Exchange Reacted to The Final

The eyes of the world were on Lionel Messi’s Argentina and Kylian Mbappe’s France in the 2022 FIFA World Cup Final. Neither player would disappoint, scoring five goals between them in an instant, all-time classic.

Argentina and France ended regular time deadlocked at 2-2 apiece and, despite further scoring in extra time, were forced into a penalty shootout to decide the contest.

Throughout the entirety of the World Cup Stats Insider has delivered our powerful predictive models across every game in Qatar, in partnership with Betfair.

Let's take a look at the moments that mattered in the Final and how they impacted the Betfair Exchange

23rd minute: Messi penalty puts Argentina ahead

Argentina firmed into $2.74 at the kick-off and immediately seized momentum, led by Juventus winger Ángel Di María. The dam wall soon burst for France after a contentious foul sends Lionel Messi to the spot. Argentina scored and shortened into around $1.50.

36th minute: Di María doubles the lead

France remained listless, unable to fire a single shot at goal with over a third of regular time elapsed. 

Argentina capitalised. 

Messi is directly involved again – this time in an exquisite team goal. Five snap passes, starting from their defensive half, and landing with Di María, who poked the ball home.

Argentina tightens to $1.12 on the Betfair Exchange, while the draw drifted to $13 nearing half time.

Our FIFA World Cup Predictive Model swung in the favour of Argentina, placing the eventual winners as a 78.5% chance to win the match.

80th minute: France applies pressure; Mbappe penalty halves the deficit

It took until 66th minute, but Les Bleus through Antoine Griezmann, Randal Kolo Muani and Kylian Mbappe continued to apply pressure. 

Muani triggers enough Argentine anxiety to force a penalty, which Mbappe converts.

France is matched at $50 on the Betfair Exchange’s Outright Winner market right before Mbappe’s goal.

81st minute: Magic Mbappe half-volley ties it up at 2-2

The reigning champions left it late, but they made it count.

Mbappe prepares a one-touch pass to Marcus Thuram, who floats one in the air back to Mbappe, who connected superbly to put the ball in the back of the net. 

The draw (in the Match Odds market) swings from a high of $36 into $1.56 favourite in five minutes of playing time.

Mbappe’s goal to the commentary of Peter Drury is just one of the greatest things in football#ARGFRA | #WorldCupFinal

pic.twitter.com/VNSNb1Xvoc

— HFV (@hfvnews) December 19, 2022

The biggest story is Argentina, who had been matched at $1.02 in-play against both Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands at this World Cup. This time, La Albiceleste were traded at $1.03, with over $7.5 million matched at odds of $1.20 or less.

Mbappe's equaliser saw our model shift dramatically in favour of France, rising to over 50% for the first time since midway through the first half.

90th minute + 7 minutes added time: France shifts the momentum entirely

After touching $50 to lift the World Cup around 15 minutes prior, France are now favourites at $1.99 in the winner market, with Argentina drifting to even money. 

Argentina look shaky in the eight minutes of added time, but neither team break the deadlock. 

MORE: Biggest Highs and Lows at the FIFA World Cup 2022

109th minute: Messi revitalises Argentina, giving them a 3-2 advantage

Kylian Mbappe continues to work Argentina’s defence over, but the opponents refuse to yield. 

The winner market  was then impacted, cutting Argentina into $1.88 favourites in the 106th minute. 

Messi and Lautauro Martínez liven up on offence, with Messi ensuring Martínez’s fierce strike on goal is eventually converted. Messi is matched at a low of $1.03 on the Exchange’s Golden Boot market.

The Stats Insider model agreed, shifting Argentina into a 95.3% chance of hoisting the World Cup.

118th minute: It’s not over! Mbappe completes famous hat-trick from the spot

France blows out to around $10.50 to win the World Cup with ten minutes left in extra time.

 Argentina attempts to kill the game as time counts down, but France is awarded a penalty via Gonzalo Montiel’s handball blocking a Mbappe shot. 

The Frenchman scores and re-takes the lead in the Golden Boot race. 

Mbappe was matched at a high of $48, inflicting more pain on Argentine backers, as Lionel Messi was bet at a low of $1.03. 

France were cut back to $2.10 to win the World Cup with Argentina trading at around $1.90.

And the records kept falling 👑 #FIFAWorldCup pic.twitter.com/dPGizdoYzh

— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) December 19, 2022

Full Time: Argentina wins their third FIFA World Cup

Argentina were one of the favourites to win in Qatar, but their chances took a heavy blow after their loss to Saudi Arabia. Their odds to win the World Cup reached a high of $20 on the Exchange. 

Despite the bad beats throughout the tournament, Messi’s men recovered to win when it mattered most.