FIFA World Cup Best Bets for Australia vs Argentina

Last updated: Dec 2, 2022, 4:45PM | Published: Dec 2, 2022, 11:42AM

After a big win over Denmark, Australia is through to the round of 16 where they will take on Lionel Messi and Argentina in an attempt to go further than any Socceroos team has gone.

Using the powerful predictive analytics model here at Stats Insider, we have found the best bets to make on the Socceroos round of 16 game, with odds thanks to Betfair.

World Cup Best Bets for Socceroos vs Argentina

Our model currently projects Australia as having a 6.4% chance of winning the match against Argentina, with Messi's men at a 78.2% chance and the draw a 15.4% probability.

If you're feeling like the model is undervaluing the Socceroos, our World Cup simulator is the tool for you, allowing you to see who we will most likely face on the road to the final.

TRY IT FREE: World Cup 2022 simulator

Both Teams To Score - Yes

Our best bet for Australia's game against Argentina is for both teams to score. Both Argentina and Australia scored in all three of their group stage games, with both teams even scoring first in each of their games.

Our fair odds for this market are $2.75, giving us a 4% edge on the $3.00 currently available to back on the Betfair Exchange.

Back: Both teams to score - Yes ($3.00)

MORE: World Cup Best Bets - Round of 16

Mitchell Duke To Score

With a bet on both teams to score, why not take the man most likely to score for the underdogs? Mitchell Duke already has one goal at the World Cup and is likely to be Australia's main threat, in particular from set pieces.

As well as Duke being Australia's most likely anytime goal scorer (13.1%), we also have an edge on the back odds available on the Betfair Exchange. With our fair odds at $7.63, punters are gaining a 3.6% edge on the market's current odds of $10.50.

Back: Mitchell Duke to score anytime ($10.50)

Draw in 90 minutes

With a win in 90 minutes projected as just as 6.4% chance for Australia, its best chance of advancing is likely to grind out a draw and get the game to extra-time and possibly a penalty shootout.

The Socceroos defence has held strong over its last two games with two straight clean sheets and will be key to getting a result again here.

Our fair odds for a draw are $6.49, which equates to an edge of 2.6% against the back odds of $7.80 currently available to on the Betfair Exchange.

Back: Draw after 90 minutes ($7.80)

MORE: Australia vs Argentina World Cup prediction

Where to bet on World Cup?

If you're looking to bet on FIFA World Cup 2022 using the information above, the best place to do is with Betfair, where you can both back and lay every market across the board throughout the tournament.

All dates and times in this article are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) unless otherwise noted.

More About World Cup 2022

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Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.