FIFA World Cup Best Bets: Who will win World Cup 2022?
Last updated: Nov 15, 2022, 3:07PM | Published: Oct 17, 2022, 4:19PM
Stats Insider, Australia's leading sports data site, has used powerful soccer modelling to simulate the FIFA World Cup 2022 to determine what the true World Cup 2022 odds and probabilities are for all of the major futures betting markets.
After simulating the World Cup 2022 10,000 times, the most likely team to win the World Cup is Brazil with a probability of 15.6%. But betting on the favourite to win the World Cup is not where the value lies at Betfair.
World Cup Best Bets: To Win
If you're looking to bet on a team with a good chance of going all the way in Qatar, here are the most likely winners of the FIFA World Cup 2022:
- Brazil (15.6%)
- France (11.6%)
- England (10.1%)
When looking for the best value bets to win the FIFA World Cup 2022, three teams stand out, with one of them ranked in the top six chances to win overall.
The first team to present value against Betfair odds is Portugal, which our model rates as having a 7.5% chance of winning the World Cup 2022. Odds of $17.50 are currently available on the Betfair exchange, equating to an implied probability of 5.7% and giving us a 1.8% edge on the market.
If you're looking for a dark horse World Cup bets, the teams that our model has detected the best edge on are Denmark and Uruguay.
| Country | SI Probability | Betfair Odds | Implied Betfair Probability |
| Portugal | 7.5% | $18 | 5.6% |
| Denmark | 3.5% | $36 | 2.8% |
| Uruguay | 2.4% | $50 | 2.0% |
Odds correct as of November 16, 2022.
World Cup Best Bets: To Make Quarter Finals
With the above tips all below 10% to win the World Cup, betting on some countries to make the quarter finals of the World Cup appears to be the better option according to Stats Insider's football model.
First up, we have one of the dark horse picks mentioned above, with Denmark projected as having a 38.3% chance of making it to the last eight. With the best available odds on Betfair currently $2.94, we are getting a 4.3% edge on the Danes to make the quarter finals.
After Denmark, we also found value in Switzerland and Poland, with both teams available at nice odds to make the quarter finals according to our model.
| Country | SI Probability | Betfair Odds | Implied Betfair Probability |
| Denmark | 38.3% | $2.94 | 34% |
| Switzerland | 23.9% | $4.70 | 21.3% |
| Poland | 20.2% | $7 | 14.3% |
Odds correct as of November 15, 2022.
World Cup Bets Bets: To Advance
As well as determining the best chances to win and make the quarter finals at the 2022 World Cup, our model has simulated every group to see where the value is in the World Cup group odds.
Stats Insider's predictive analytics model has found value on five teams to advance to the knockout stage of the World Cup 2022, ranging from two teams above a 50% probability to Iran and Canada presenting big value at odds above $4.
| Country | SI Probability | Betfair Odds | Implied Betfair Probability |
| Poland | 53.2% | $1.97 | 50.8% |
| Switzerland | 51.8% | $2.08 | 48.1% |
| Morocco | 38.3% | $3.25 | 30.8% |
| Iran | 30.3% | $4.80 | 20.8% |
| Canada | 29.8% | $4.30 | 23.3% |
Odds correct as of November 15, 2022.
Where to bet on the FIFA World Cup 2022
The best place to bet on the World Cup 2022 is with Betfair. With Betfair operating as an exchange between punters, you can often find the best odds for an event, including the FIFA World Cup 2022.
More about World Cup 2022
Stats Insider is your home of World Cup 2022 predictions, with the latest FIFA World Cup 2022 news, predictions for every World Cup 2022 game, and futures odds for each stage of the World Cup 2022.
Stats Insider's general rule is to bet anything that we have a 3% or greater edge on.
