World Cup Golden Ball Odds and 2022 Best Bets

Winning the Golden Ball at the FIFA World Cup is a wonderful achievement to add to the incredible careers of some of the world's very best players.

The Golden Ball is an award that tends to go to the flashiest attacking players on successful teams – only former German goalkeeper Oliver Kahn has won the award for best player at the World Cup outside of the midfield and attacking positions, while the reigning champion is Luka Modric, well known for his versatility in midfield.

To pick the winner of the award, you must simply be decisive as to who will last the longest in the tournament – of the 10 recipients, only Italy's Salvatore Chillaci (1990) and Uruguay's Diego Forlan (2010) have not played in that year's FIFA World Cup final, however each of their teams finished third and fourth respectively.

With that in mind, it's time to look at who are the best chances of winning the Golden Ball at the FIFA World Cup 2022, with odds thanks to Betfair.

World Cup 2022 Golden Ball odds

• $10: Neymar, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, Alvaro Morata
• $12: Kevin De Bruyne
• $13: Karim Benzema
• $15: Harry Kane
• $17: Vinicius Junior
• $26: Raphina
• $29: Cristiano Ronaldo, Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva, Richarlison, Memphis Depay, Romelu Lukaku, Christian Eriksen, Raheem Sterling

Odds thanks to Betfair correct as of 9 November, 2022.

Neymar (Brazil)

• Brazil World Cup Win Probability: 15.6%
• Neymar Golden Ball Odds with Betfair: $10

One of the few players that transcends the sport internationally, this may be Neymar's final shot at helping guide Brazil to World Cup glory and winning the tournament's greatest individual honour while in his prime.

Neymar has won six European league titles in his past eight full seasons, at Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain, yet other than top-three finishes in the Ballon D'Or in 2015 and 2017, he hasn't been a magnet for awards, but rather a simple, star player on star-studded teams.

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At club level, the 30-year-old has gone to another level in 2022. In 13 Ligue 1 appearances for PSG, he has 11 goals and nine assists, to go with two goals and two assists in five Champions League outings. In four international friendlies, he has four goals and an assist.

Given Brazil is the tournament favourite heading into Qatar, it's hard to go past the South American nation's talismanic, 121-cap superstar whose playmaking from behind the striker this season has him posting numbers reminiscent of his Barcelona heyday.

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MORE: FIFA World Cup 2022 winner probabilities

Karim Benzema (France)

• France World Cup Win Probability: 11.6%
• Benzema Golden Ball Odds with Betfair: $10

If you believe that France can be the first team to win back-to-back World Cups since Brazil in 1958 and 1962, then it's likely that their best chance of a Golden Ball winner is the veteran striker.

It has been an extraordinary career renaissance for Karim Benzema. In the 2017/18 La Liga season, he scored just five goals in 32 matches. By that time, he was long out of the international team, with his last goal coming in October of 2015 against Armenia.

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His next goal and indeed regular appearance for France came nearly six years later at Euro 2020 with a double against Portugal. Since that point, Benzema has scored 10 goals in 16 appearances for France.

Quite remarkably, Benzema's resurgence resulted in 44 goals and 15 assists across all competitions for Real Madrid last season, resulting in him winning the Ballon D'Or – the second player to win it outside of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi since 2008, and the second-oldest winner of all time.

It's good form heading into the World Cup 2022.

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Lionel Messi (Argentina)

• Argentina World Cup Win Probability: 8.8%
• Messi Golden Ball Odds with Betfair: $10

Literally the last thing left for Lionel Messi to achieve in his legendary career is to win the World Cup with Argentina and this may well be his last opportunity.

At 35 years of age, it's hard to imagine the superstar's international career extending too far beyond the current edition of the World Cup and given his status as one of the greatest of all time, it'd be perfect for him to retire on a high.

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From a club perspective, Messi has clearly moved beyond a slightly anticlimactic start to his post-Barcelona career.

Across all competitions at PSG, he has 11 goals and 14 assists in 17 appearances and has found his spark once again. It's been a mixed bag at an international level, given he has nine goals in three friendly appearances, but only scored once in the Copa America.

Still, if Argentina wins the World Cup 2022, Messi will win the Golden Ball. 

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Harry Kane (England)

• England World Cup Win Probability: 10.1%
• Kane Golden Ball Odds with Betfair: $15

England won their only World Cup in 1966. They haven't even won a third-placed playoff since then, indeed losing that game to Belgium at the World Cup 2018, continuing to be one of the greater sources of humour and entertainment to opposition fans in international football.

Still, they're not a team to shun when discussing the World Cup 2022 and are even more dangerous if manager Gareth Southgate can get them switched on defensively.

Harry Kane's loyalty to Tottenham probably restricts his ability to win anything team-related until he leaves, but this is a man who was the Golden Boot at the last World Cup, has won the Premier League's Golden Boot on three occasions and has dragged his club over the line as captain on many occasions.

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In the EPL this season, he has 11 goals in 14 matches, he scored four times in seven matches at the Euros and in World Cup Qualification, he scored 12 and assisted two more in just eight games.

This is an award for the most prolific players and they don't get much better than Harry Kane.

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Cody Gakpo (Netherlands)

• Netherlands World Cup Win Probability: 6.9%
• Gakpo Golden Ball Odds with Betfair: $95

Generally, to win this award, you need to have been a well-known and respected player for years prior to success.

Yet there's this feeling around world football that this could be the tournament that Dutchman Cody Gakpo officially breaks out in, cementing himself as one of the best young talents going around.

Already, there's talk that the 23-year-old will make a big money move to one of the top European clubs in the January transfer window and a breakout tournament in Qatar will only speed up that process.

In both the Eridivisie and Europa League for PSV Eindhoven this season, Gakpo has 12 goals and 14 assists in 18 matches and has proven to be one of the most incisive, players who cuts in off the left and destroys anyone.

He only has nine international caps to his name, but this could be the tournament that makes Gakpo's career.

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Ruben Dias (Portugal)

• Portugal World Cup Win Probability: 7.5%
• Dias Golden Ball Odds with Betfair: $65

Technically, it is possible for a defender to win the award even though it has never been done, and the player most likely to do so from a contending team would be Ruben Dias, should Portugal advance to at least the semi finals.

At Manchester City, Dias' form has perhaps taken a slight dip after he was brought over from Benfica in 2021 with such high potential.

But when he's on form, there are few centre backs in the world who can be as timely and precise as the 25-year-old, whose performances in big matches has led to him being compared to some of the greatest defenders of all time by pundits.

Portugal has drawn a relatively friendly group and finishing on top would open the draw up perfectly. 

Everyone will naturally be drawn to Cristiano Ronaldo, then some will like at Bruno Fernandes or perhaps a breakout tournament for Rafael Leao.

But if you sense a defender could be named the best player in the FIFA World Cup 2022, then look no further than Ruben Dias.

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List of 10 World Cup Golden Ball winners

• 2018 World Cup: Luka Modric (Croatia)
• 2014 World Cup: Lionel Messi (Argentina)
• 2010 World Cup: Diego Forlan (Uruguay)
• 2006 World Cup: Zinedine Zidane (France)
• 2002 World Cup: Oliver Kahn (Germany)
• 1998 World Cup: Ronaldo (Brazil)
• 1994 World Cup: Romario (Brazil)
• 1990 World Cup: Salvatore Schillaci (Italy)
• 1986 World Cup: Diego Maradona (Argentina)
• 1982 World Cup: Paolo Rossi (Italy)

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