FIFA World Cup Best Bets: Quarter-Finals
Dec 7, 2022, 1:03PM
With the final eight World Cup 2022 teams decided, we have simulated each of the quarter-final games in Qatar 10,000 times each.
Using the powerful predictive analytics model here at Stats Insider, we have found the best bets to make on each quarter-final matchup, with back and lay odds thanks to Betfair.
RELATED: World Cup 2022 futures predictions
World Cup Best Bet for Croatia vs Brazil
Lay: Vinícius Júnior to score anytime
Despite scoring the opening goal in Brazil's 4-1 demolition of South Korea in the previous round, our model suggests that the best bet to make on Vinícius Júnior is a lay bet on him to score.
Brazil has a range of superstar attacking players, making it difficult to pick which one will score, especially with Croatia likely to try keep the scoring to a minimum to increase its chances of advancing.
Our fair odds for Vinícius Jr. to score are $5.05 (19.8%), with lay odds of $4.10 currently available on the Betfair Exchange.
These odds equate to probabilities of 19.8% and 24.4%, giving lay punters a 4.6% edge on the market.
MORE: Croatia vs Brazil World Cup prediction
World Cup Best Bet for Netherlands vs Argentina
Back: Total goals over 2.5
Our model's best play for the Netherlands Argentina game on Saturday morning is for the total goals to go over 2.5.
Both of these teams have a host of attacking talent, with Lionel Messi and Memphis Depay looking in ominous form.
The Netherlands and Argentina both conceded to weaker opponents last round (USA and Australia) for the over 2.5 to hit in each game, with each defence likely to give up multiple chances in this game.
Our implied fair odds for this bet are $2.28, whilst you can currently get back odds of $2.46 on the Betfair Exchange for a 3% edge.
MORE: Netherlands vs Argentina World Cup prediction
World Cup Best Bet for vs Morocco vs Portugal
Back: Morocco to advance
One of the stories of the World Cup thus far has been Morocco's run and now we're taking them to go one step further.
If they can get past Portugal, Morocco will become the first African team to make the semi-finals at the World Cup. And that's exactly where our edge has been found.
Our fair odds for Morocco to advance to the next round are $3.37, whilst the current $3.70 back odds on the Betfair Exchange give us a 2.7% edge.
MORE: Morocco vs Portugal World Cup prediction
World Cup Best Bet for England vs France
Back: England to win in 90 mins
The final quarter-final matchup at Qatar 2022 sees England take on France, and our model is liking the value on England to win.
These two teams are more even than the odds would suggest, with our model projecting England as a 34.4% chance of winning the match, compared to 38.8% for France.
Our fair odds for England to win in 90 minutes are $2.91, meaning you can get a 3% edge on the Betfair Exchange with back odds of $3.15.
MORE: England vs France World Cup prediction
Where to bet on World Cup?
If you're looking to bet on FIFA World Cup 2022 using the information above, the best place to do is with Betfair, where you can both back and lay every market across the board throughout the tournament.
All dates and times in this article are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) unless otherwise noted.
More About World Cup 2022
Stats Insider is your home for betting on the World Cup 2022, with the latest World Cup 2022 betting news, predictions for every World Cup 2022 game and futures odds for every stage of the World Cup 2022.
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