Five Burning Questions for the Rest of the 2022 NRL Season

With the NRL Representative Round now behind us we're heading into the period of the year where every team sets a new goal.

For some, it's winding up into September in preparation for a premiership push. For others, just making it to the finals will be considered a big success. We've got a collection of teams in a heated battle to avoid the wooden spoon too.

Let's take a look at five key questions heading into the pointy end of the 2022 NRL season.

MORE: Round 16 NRL Predictions

Will the Panthers go back-to-back in 2022?

The current Penrith Panthers are one of the best teams in NRL history. They’ve lost only seven games since Round 1 in 2020, and for the most part, have rarely been tested throughout the period. They’re incredibly well-drilled which leads to a consistency no other team is close to emulating. Unlike other teams that sometimes take a week off mentally, Penrith start every game with elite line speed, attention in defence and patience in attack. The Panthers play the same way regardless of opposition.

Penrith uses an NRL-high 1,847 running metres per game to get to the other end of the field. With 33.8 tackles inside the opposition's 20-metre line per game (2nd in the NRL), the Panthers pile on pressure and patiently wait for the defence to crack. They aren’t in a hurry; Nathan Cleary, Apisai Koroisau or Isaah Yeo will find a way to produce points if given enough opportunities.

Defensively, this is one of the toughest lines to crack in NRL history. It will end up as THE best in NRL history if their current 10.5 points conceded per game sticks through to the end of the season.

Best NRL Defences in History

Can the Panthers go back-to-back? Absolutely.

Will they? You’d be brave to bet against them.

The Melbourne Storm are always a relevant player at the pointy end of the season while the Brisbane Broncos, North Queensland Cowboys, Parramatta Eels and - possibly - the Sydney Roostersare all capable of an upset in September. Still, the Panthers are deserving favourites and anything short of lifting the Provan -Summons Trophy will be considered a failure at the foot of the mountains.

Can the Cowboys contend in 2022?

Being towards the top in the NRL in yardage and in the top three in NRL defenceare consistent attributes of premiership-winning teams.

Since 2005, only the 2015 North Queensland Cowboys have managed to win the premiership while playing with a defence outside the top three (5th). The 2022 Cowboys currently rank 2nd conceding just 13.1 points per game, behind only the history-making Panthers. Their energy and scramble in defence is incredible and best highlighted by this effort against the Dragons in Round 14.

As Jonathon Reuben flew into the backfield, no less than seven Cowboys players covered in defence with an eighth eventually making the tackle.

The Cowboys are the real deal in defence and continue to prove themselves as one of the better yardage teams in the NRL, too. Only Penrith run for more metres than North Queensland’s 1,717 metres per game.

Jason Taumalolo is back to his best following an injury-impacted 2021 season. His running metres are down but his impact is up. As one of the best ball-carriers ever, Taumalolo takes the attention of the defence. He brings three defenders into the tackle which opens up the opportunity for him to tip the ball onto a teammate isolated onto a single defender. If Taumalolo isn’t generating the yardage himself, he’s generating it for others.

Jordan McLean has quietly put together a strong season so far, Reuben Cotter is all of a sudden a State of Origin middle, Coen Hess is thriving on both sides of the ball at prop while Tom Gilbert, Griffin Neame and Jeremiah Nanai have burst onto the scene in 2022 to provide the Cowboys with consistency and quality across the field.

And it's has all happened rather quickly. The Cowboys kicked the season off among the favourites for the NRL wooden spoon but are now at 72.9% to finish inside the Top 4 and 5.9% to win the premiership. We’d usually ask a team to prove themselves before hailing them as premiership contenders but the Cowboys are different. Finals drought or not, the Cowboys are contenders in 2022.

MORE: NRL Premiership Probabilities

Can the Eels go beyond Week 2 of the NRL Finals in 2022?

Finishing inside the top four is crucial for the Parramatta Eels this year. Unfortunately, given what we saw across two weeks when this side lost to the 16th-placed Bulldogs before putting on a clinic in the first half against the Sydney Roosters a week later, we can’t trust the Eels to win four games in a row in September.

While they have proven capable of stepping up against the best teams in the NRL, the Eels inconsistency doesn’t lend itself to a deep premiership run. However, if they can rise up and into the top four to at least give themselves a chance at avoiding Week 2 of the Finals where their season has ended in four of the last five years, they might just be able to sneak into the Grand Final. Surely we don’t need to worry about this side being able to switch on for that one...

Currently sixth on the NRL ladder but equal on points with the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks, the Stats Insider futures model puts the Eels at 46.9% to end Round 25 inside the to four.

Parramatta face a somewhat difficult run home but that can be seen as a good thing. Provided they navigate their way past the Wests Tigers and New Zealand Warriors in Round 17 and 18 and build towards 15 or 16 wins, Brad Arthur’s side will be in the hunt for 4th and a chance at earning a week off in September.

This is a premiership-contending roster but not one we can trust to put it all together four times in the finals. If the Eels again finish in the 5th-8th range, we’re looking at yet another Week 2 elimination and another off-season of questions surrounding Arthur’s ability to take this side to the next level.

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Will there be a Roosters revival in 2022?

The Sydney Roosters have put together one of the more head-scratching starts to the 2022 NRL season of all 16 teams.

Currently ninth on the ladder with seven wins, eight losses and three defeats on the bounce, the Roosters are playing well below expectation.

The Roosters started the year as premiership smokies. Following a turbulent 2021 season in which they seemed to sustain a long-term injury every week, Trent Robinson’s best 17 heading into 2022 looked like a formidable side on paper. In reality, the Roosters have been clunky in attack and inconsistent in defence.

The combination between Sam Walker and Luke Keary hasn’t developed how many hoped. Keary, as much as the Roosters try and despite the odd occasion he plays well in the role, hasn’t kicked on as an on-ball half. It’s not a role he is accustomed to and takes away his impact as one of the best short-side halves in the NRL. Walker, meanwhile, is somewhat hamstrung. He’s averaging exactly the same number of touches as he did in 2021 (35.1 per game) but looks more capable of playing the organiser while Keary pops up out wide.

Back to the point about yardage earlier…

For all of their issues, Sydney does put itself in a position to perform a lot better with the ball than they currently do. The Roosters' 1,682 running metres per game ranks 3rd in the NRL. If they can start to produce more often with the ball and close up their current 19.3 points conceded per game in defence, we might yet see the Roosters revival many have been expecting every week for the last two months.

Still expected to make the Top 8 at 69.7%, there is too much talent on the roster to rule the Roosters out of premiership contention (4.8%) just yet.

Who wins/loses the intriguing NRL wooden spoon battle?

The 2022 Wooden Spoon could be decided this week as the New Zealand Warriors host the Wests Tigers in the Kiwi club's return to Mt Smart Stadium.

Following 59 consecutive games away from home, a win here to make it five for the year might be enough for the Warriors to keep the wooden spoon at bay while the Tigers rise from their current 35.9% probability to finish 16th.

Both clubs sacked their coach in the same week following predictably poor starts to the season, and neither Stacey Jones nor Brett Kimmorley have had a Mick Potter-like impact in their roles as caretaker coach since.

Potter has started to lead the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs away from the wooden spoon conversation with back-to-back wins and a significant improvement in attack. He has kept things simple, made the obvious changes to the team list, and it is starting to pay dividends.

The Gold Coast Titans occupy 16th on the ladder after 15 rounds following a five-game losing streak and 0-7 record away from home. The Newcastle Knights can’t be ruled out either with Adam O’Brien another coach that is looking over his shoulder.

While most of the focus will be on the top of the ladder throughout the remainder of the season, we’ve got an intriguing battle to avoid the spoon on our hands.

MORE: NRL 2022 Finals Probabilities

(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)