Five outside chances to win the Women's World Cup
Last updated: Mar 4, 2021, 3:05AM | Published: Jun 6, 2019, 12:44AM
In 1991, when the inaugural Women’s World cup took place in China, just 12 teams contested the then two-week event, which, for the most part, had scant television coverage and where just two matches at the tournament generated crowds in excess of 20,000 people.
When the 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup kicks off in Paris this week, it’ll be a global event contested by 24 teams across nine cities played over the course of a month. It will be one of the most watched sporting events of 2019 and an absolute celebration of how incredibly far the women’s game has come.
That 1991 World Cup seems a universe away from the prominence the women’s game now enjoys, not just from a global appreciation and viewership perspective, but just as importantly from a competitive standpoint.
THE MATILDAS: Can Australia actually win the World Cup?
In that first ever World Cup, complete blowouts were the norm with the United States winning the tournament with an overall - and rather ridiculous - goal difference of +20 from just six games.
In fact, throughout the nineties, women’s international football was monopolised by the USA and Germany - and to a lesser extent China and Norway - yet over the last ten years there’s been significantly more diversity amongst the competitive ranks of international football.
Japan winning the 2011 World Cup ripped away the dominance that the US and Germany had enjoyed, while the game has seen increasingly big strides in Africa; more competition amongst traditional European men’s powers; while, of course, the Australian team have qualified for the Quarter-Final for the last three FIFA World Cups and will enter the 2019 edition full of confidence.
France 2019 is absolutely the most wide-open women's tournament yet, and if bookmaker markets are anything to go by, it could be argued there are as many as a dozen teams with legitimate hopes of hoisting the iconic trophy in Paris on the first Sunday of July.
WORLD CUP: Group Stage Match Projections
Stats Insider has already examined the Matildas' prospects at the 2019 World Cup, as well as an evaluation of the tournament’s five leading contenders, including France, the United States, Germany, England and Japan.
Here are five teams best placed to cause an upset at World Cup 2019.
THE NETHERLANDS
BACKGROUND: Few teams have climbed so far up the ranks of women’s football than what the Dutch have done over the last few years. This was a nation who had made no footprint whatsoever on the international scene and hadn’t qualified for a single World Cup until Canada 2015.
Yet, when the Dutch hosted the 2017 European Women’s Championships they used the tournament as their coming out to the world, scorching through the event with six wins from six matches, trailing by a total of all of four minutes over the course of the tournament. It was a brutal performance which not only hoisted the Dutch firmly onto the international women's football map, but also put an end to Germany’s six consecutive continental crowns.
KEY PLAYER: Vivianne Miedema. Just 22 years old, the Arsenal striker has net more than 100 goals for club and country combined, to say nothing of the other hundred goals scored as a teenager playing in the Dutch and German leagues. Fresh off winning the golden boot in England’s top flight to fuel Arsenal’s third ever league title, Miedma will be one striker to keep your eye on throughout the World Cup.
TAB Odds: $13
STATS INSIDER SAYS: at 6.5% to win the World Cup, the model is bullish about Dutch chances of advancing past the group stage, with a 97% projection of making it to the second round.
CANADA
BACKGROUND: For a country who unfortunately doesn't have its own women’s professional domestic league, Canada remains at the vanguard of women’s soccer due to their continually phenomenal participation rates at the grassroots level, which contributed to them winning the hosting rights for the 2015 World Cup. The Canadians also have performed quite well on the international stage where they're currently ranked #5 in the world according to FIFA, and have won a bronze medal at each of the last two Olympics.
KEY PLAYER: Christine Sinclair. When all is said and done, Sinclair will go down as one of the greatest women’s footballers of all time. She will turn 36 years of age during the tournament, yet the veteran of 282 caps and 181 international goals is still Canada’s best player and inspirational leader. If the 14-time Canadian Player of the Year is capable of scoring four times at this World Cup, she'll break American legend Abby Wambach's record as the most prolific scorer in the history of women's international football.
TAB Odds: $17
STATS INSIDER SAYS: at 4.6% the Canadians are a strong contender for an outside upset, with the Stats Insider model projecting a 48% chance to make it to the Quarter-Finals.
SWEDEN
BACKGROUND: The Swedes may feel cursed, being drawn into the same group as the United States, yet qualification from the group will result in being split up from the USA in the knock-out round, pitted into a section of the draw which could provide Sweden with a charmed run through to the Semi-Finals.
The Swedes have serious pedigree at World Cup level, having qualified for all seven editions and making the Semi-Finals on three occasions, while their most recent performance of note came at the 2016 Rio Olympics, where they snagged a silver medal.
KEY PLAYER: When the Swedes won the 2015 Under 19 Championship, Stina Blackstenius set the tournament on fire with six goals - double the next best at the tournament. She added five more in the World Cup qualifying rounds, with her output very much contributing to Sweden's eighth World Cup appearance.
TAB Odds: $21
STATS INSIDER SAYS: a 96% chance to advance through the group stage, the Swedes are rated at 2.2% to win the tournament.
NORWAY
BACKGROUND: Most headlines regarding the Norwegian team centre around the absence of the sport’s pre-eminent player Ada Hegerberg from the 2019 World Cup squad. The FC Lyon superstar and reigning Ballon d’Or winner has decided not to participate as a protest against what she views as sexist practices within the upper echelons of Norwegian football. And while her decision should be both respected and (hopefully) listened to, from a competitive standpoint Norway simply must move on without her.
Like their Scandinavian neighbours, Sweden, the Norwegians had the misfortune of being grouped in with equal betting favourites, France, yet, again like Sweden, a potential qualification from the group will assure them of being split into a more favourable section of the draw come the knockout stages.
Norway has made each and every World Cup, and in 1995 were crowned champions. While the competition has definitely caught up, a bold showing in France is by no means beyond the realm of possibility.
KEY PLAYER: Maren Mjelde. Captain of the team, with 132 caps the Chelsea midfielder is used in the centre of defence for the national team.
TAB Odds: $29
STATS INSIDER SAYS: very much a rank outsider, the model says Norway has a 77% chance of advancing to the second round, but only a 3% chance of making it to the World Cup Final.
SCOTLAND
BACKGROUND: The Scottish men's national team has been synonymous with misery. The women’s team - at least at this stage - are clouded in mystery.
While the Scots are yet to make much noise at the international level, they do have a deep and proud history within the sport, with records indicating Scottish women playing as far back as 1628, while Scotland’s first ever women’s international took place in 1881, punishing all-time rivals England 3-0.
And, while this will be Scotland's first ever appearance at the FIFA Women’s World Cup, what can’t be denied is that there’s some genuine talent in what’ll be one of the youngest teams at the tournament.
KEY PLAYER: That would be Chelsea's Erin Cuthbert. The 20-year-old, freakishly talented Cuthbert is at the heart of everything the Scots do. Recently named in the English Super League Team of the Year, if Cuthbert can indeed provide enough fuel, Scotland may be able to fire themselves out of the group stage and into the knockout rounds.
TAB Odds: $67
STATS INSIDER SAYS: the definition of a rank outsider, the model says the Scots basically cannot win the World Cup, with just a 1% chance of making the Semi-Finals.
Related: 10,000 WAYS THE 2019 FIFA WOMEN'S WORLD CUP COULD PLAY OUT
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