Footy Forensics: Warriors v Storm

The Warriors are one of the great mysteries of the NRL.

One minute they're looking like world beaters before they crumble to a team made up of reserve-graders the next.

They've tracked better than they have done in years throughout 2018 so far, but consistency remains an issue. A good game has been followed with a bad one over the last three months. As a result, they're still a tipsters nightmare despite being finals-bound for the first time since 2011.

After one of their best wins of the season at Suncorp Stadium last week, the Stats Insider Model isn't tipping so much of a bad game, just a bad result.

If anything, the Warriors might consider a 19-18 loss a success after being thumped 50-10 by the Storm on Anzac Day in Round 8.

That result will surely remain in the minds of both sides heading into this one.

Regardless of what the final scoreline might be, though, the Model leans towards the Storm to win in 53% of the simulated matches.

Melbourne has won the last five games between the two clubs which adds to the appeal of their $1.68 price. Mt Smart isn't the torturous away trip for the Storm like it is for some having won 10 and lost 10 across the ditch.

However, with 47% of the simulated matches going the way of the hosts, the Warriors at $2.26 to win carries plenty of value.

The Kiwi outfit is one of the most dangerous attacking sides in the competition when Shaun Johnson is on the field. When SJ is available, they're scoring 21.8 points per game - good for the fifth-best attack in the competition.

They are without Tohu Harris for this one which puts a lid on how potent their right side can be, but there are plenty of points in this Warriors outfit, nevertheless.

A rib injury has ruled Blake Green out of @NZWarriors side to play @storm with Mason Lino replacing him at five-eighth. Peta Hiku also drops off the bench with Karl Lawton into the 17 #NRLWarriorsStorm

— David Skipwith (@DavidSkipwith) July 21, 2018

Leading the competition in offloads with 13.1 per game, second phase is a massive part of their attack. With the Storm uncharacteristically committing 11.4 errors per game (fourth-most in the NRL), the Warriors will get plenty of second opportunities to attack in this one too.

Where Melbourne square this one up is in their defence. It ranks second in the competition conceding just 15.6 points per game.

They are well equipped to handle this Warriors side in an attack v defence match that is expected to be especially close.

That expectation has been mirrored by the bookmakers who have given the Warriors a +2.5 headstart.

With the points, the Model likes the Warriors to cover the spread in 60% of simulated matches.

Throughout their current six-game winning streak, the Storm have won three of them by a single point.

They just know how to win close games and if this one is going down to the wire, those +2.5 points the Warriors are getting to start could well be the difference.

Anticipating a Warriors win isn't outrageous, but taking the extra points acts as a strong contingency plan for an inform Cameron Smith and a potential field or penalty goal late in the piece.

When it comes to the Total, the Model isn't having a bar of it.

With the Storm's defence capable of slowing down the Warriors attack at home, this game is unlikely to be a shootout. 

The Model's 19-18 final score feels about right rendering the 36.5 Total untouchable.

It's only the Warriors at the +2.5 Line that warrants a genuine lean.

The Model has identified the +2.5 as a one-star value punt and it's a strong option.

This Warriors side is different from those we have seen over the last six seasons. Beating the Storm here isn't out of the question and their $2.26 price might even be worth a nibble.

However, taking the home side with the +2.5 start is the way to go. As good as the Warriors were last week, every team needs all the help they can get when playing the Storm.

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