Footy Forensics: Blues v Maroons

State of Origin looks set to get back to its best following the 12 years of Queensland dominance that saw the product become somewhat stale.

There was always hope it would be "the Blues' year", but the inevitability of the Maroons finding a way to win the series had killed off some of the Origin aura.

But now entering the 37th series and looking shiny and new, the Blues are paying the shortest price since 2005 at $1.45 to win Game I.

Naturally, any Queensland side paying $2.85 is going to cop plenty of attention too.

So how did we get here?

Queensland: Cooper Cronk, Johnathan Thurston and Cameron Smith have all retired from representative football. Darius Boyd and Matt Scott haven't had their card stamped for this series, and may never do so again. Billy Slater was named but has since withdrawn due to injury.

That's 180 games worth of Origin experience - gone.

Cameron Munster and Ben Hunt have been tasked with filling the halves while Andrew McCullough has the unenviable task of replacing Cameron Smith. Michael Morgan will take up the custodian role with Anthony Milford coming off the bench.

It's all looking very different in the Maroons camp.

New South Wales: With 11 debutants, Brad Fittler has put the biggest axe through a side Origin has ever seen. Jack de Belin, Tom Trbojevic, Josh Addo-Carr, James Roberts, Latrell Mitchell, Nathan Cleary, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Damien Cook, Tyrone Peachey, Paul Vaughan and Angus Crichton will all make their first appearance for the Blues in Game I.

Fittler has ignored loyalty and picked his side with one eye on form, and the other on the future.

The two teams originally named had everybody licking their lips, but Queensland has since gone into crisis mode in the last 24 hours.

First Billy Slater was ruled out due to injury, then Dane Gagai fractured his finger while Ben Hunt needs to pass a fitness test before running out to play on the night.

South Sydney have named Dane Gagai in their side for weekend. Lends weight to theory he will play for Maroons. Dare say they would have reached out to Qld medical staff

— Brent Read (@brentread_7) June 5, 2018

The questions over the Blues and how well they could gel with so many new faces are valid, but the same can now be asked of the Maroons as injuries continue to force reshuffles.

Taking Queensland at $2.40 earlier in the week before the injuries hit looked like a handy play. However, backing them head-to-head no longer carries the same level of confidence.

With the odds taking a tumble, the $1.45 the Blues are getting at the time of writing don't appeal much either.

It's at the Line we start to get some value.

Queensland at +6.5 is an attractive Line that could yet get bigger.

The sheer number of people and the popularity of Rugby League in New South Wales lends itself to a few lofty lines when the Blues are a chance at winning, and you can rely on locals laying a bit down on their side at -6.5 with the news coming out of the Queensland camp.

Not only that, Origin matches are traditionally low-scoring and the Total is set at a meagre 34.5 points for this one. The bookmakers clearly aren't expecting a flurry of points.

History is on their side.

Since 2008 (30 games), Queensland has averaged just 19.22 points per game while New South Wales is way down at 14.06 points per game.

Of those 30 games, 23 have been decided by 10 or fewer points.

The average points scored in a series-opener over the last 10 years is only 28.5 points with the average margin of victory just 7.1 points.

It's got low-scoring written all over it.

“This is the most important game for NSW in Origin history, they need to win this game.” #100PercentFooty pic.twitter.com/qXHUvxsa0q

— 100% Footy (@100percentfooty) June 4, 2018

With so many new players that need to get themselves familiar with the Origin arena, the famous 'feeling out period' where teams open by playing structured and risk-free footy could extend well into the second half. 

However, with both sides packing so much punch in attack, the 34.5 Total will be under constant threat.

The Maroons +6.5 Line looks like the play to make, though.

Trust the history of not only the closeness of a series-opener, but also of Queensland and their ability to pull off the unthinkable when their backs are against the wall.

We've seen New South Wales crumble under the pressure of expectation before. We only need to look back as far as their 16-4 halftime lead of Game II last season to be reminded of that.

And this isn't the old and tired Queensland team that got thumped in Game I of 2017. 

At worst, this group should cover the +6.5 Line.

*Update*

Dane Gagai and Ben Hunt all but confirmed to play. Queensland Line up to +7.5. Jump on.

We are currently providing free predictions for every NRL game when you make a Stats Insider account. This access will only be free for a limited time while we optimise our website. Sign up now to get free access to everything