Footy Forensics: Blues v Maroons Game II

The State of Origin tide is turning blue in the buildup to Game II.

As convincing 22-12 victors in Game I, New South Wales are full of confidence. Their debutants not only got through the series-opener unscathed (there were no repeats of Nathan Merrit's nightmare debut in 2013), but looked like seasoned veterans playing in Rugby League's toughest arena.

They introduce another debutant in Matt Prior for the injured Reagan Campbell-Gillard in an otherwise unchanged side.

As a result, they are heavy $1.36 favourites to wrap this it up on Sunday and turn a potential series-deciding Game III in Brisbane into nothing more than an exhibition match.

In terms of value, there's not a chance those odds get a look in here. The Maroons at $3.25 deserve more of a look, but the match being played at ANZ Stadium along with the selection issues they've had make it a tough sell.

Billy Slater is back in the custodian position for Game II and having arguably their greatest ever fullback in the squad undoubtedly helps Queensland's chances. However, he hasn't played a game since May 19th.

The other change is one the public has been demanding for weeks; it's Ponga time.

At just 20-years old, Kalyn Ponga is being thrown into Origin early. Whether that helps or hinders the Maroons in this one is the great unknown.

The utility role has been one Queensland has historically filled without using it as a utility role; it's worked for the most part. Where questions come over Ponga isn't in his ability, but how it's utilised.

He's not going to be somebody they want to throw in the middle defensively, nor is there any point in swapping him with a play-maker like-for-like. The news out of camp does give life to the idea that Ponga could have a massive impact on this game, though.

Kalyn Ponga is training extensively at fullback. Looks like that will be the spot he comes on at.

— Chris Garry (@ChrisGarry7) June 21, 2018

The thought of Ponga slotting into fullback and Slater occupying a roaming role while a forward sits on the bench is mouthwatering.

It would add another element to the Queensland attack and is a risk worth taking with the series on the line.

If it comes off and the points begin flow, their +9.5 Line looks the goods.

Even if it doesn't and Kevvy opts to use Ponga in the same pointless way he used Anthony Milford in Game I, Queensland are still a good chance at covering.

New South Wales appears to be the much better side, but it doesn't always translate into big wins.

Queensland's teams since the beginning of the dynasty (2006) would rival any of the greatest ever assembled. Some of the best talent the game has ever seen in Slater Johnathan Thurston, and Cameron Smith all played out their prime years together wearing a Maroon jersey.

But despite having the superior side all those years, they didn't always run up massive wins.

It's not something Origin football regularly subscribes to in general.

Of the 37 games since the series opener in 2006, only 10 have been decided by more than 10 points. Of the last 22 games, just five have been by 11+.

We relied on Queensland's fight and the history of close results in Game I and got burned. That Line was only at +6, though. With it already at +9.5 and a chance at getting higher as over-excited locals in Sydney hammer the Line closer to kickoff, relying on a Maroons bounce-back to cover the spread feels better than a Blues onslaught.

The 35.5 Total is where it gets tricky.

There's a chance this match becomes a bit of a shootout to comfortably go Over. 

Expect the Maroons to offer a little more than an intercept in attack and to ask more questions of the Blues defence in this one. We already know the Blues have plenty of points in them so the Over depends on the Maroons.

On the other hand, desperation could see the Maroons grow another leg in defence while nerves and the pressure of going to a decider puts the handbrake on the Blues attack. 

The Total seems bang on with a slight lean to the Under looking at the combined points in the last five matches: 34, 28, 34, 32 and 32.

It's best to stay clear of the Total market and look to the Line.

Like Game I, history points to the Maroons at least covering the +9.5 if not winning at $3.25.

However, form likes the Blues to run up a score to win comfortably at $1.36 while covering the -9.5.

As somebody that finds it difficult to go against all that Queensland have achieved in recent years and the talent they still have available, getting on the +9.5 is the play. 

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