Footy Forensics: Broncos v Bulldogs

Is there anything more Thursday Night footy than getting the low-scoring and boring Bulldogs out of the way early?

If there's a team nobody is working their schedule around for at the moment, it's the Bulldogs. 

Their attack is beyond poor and for what seems like the 78th time, Matt Frawley is being brought back into the side to "spark the Bulldogs attack".

If that's what Dean Pay is resorting to, you know it's bad.

The Stats Insider Model piles on the hurt too. 

Through 10,000 simulations of Broncos v Bulldogs, the Model has the home side taking the chocolates in 61% of matches.

The Broncos deserve to be heavy $1.50 favourites despite their 4-4 record and growing number of injuries. 

As much as the scoreboards seem to suggest otherwise throughout the first two months of the season, Brisbane is improving. Twice they were a pass away from victory with execution all that has stopped them from sitting inside the Top 8. 

The forward pack is looking better each week, and with that, giving the fleet-footed and confidence-dependent Anthony Milford more time and space to play himself into form.

Jack Bird is assisting in that regard, too. He's beginning to fill out (not a fat joke) the organising role so many people said the Broncos lacked throughout the preseason. 

Nothing in the NRL is ever a sure-thing, but the Broncos H2H is up there. The $1.50 odds aren't all that appealing, though.

What might tickle your fancy is the Bulldogs' +6.5 Line. The Model leans towards it, at least.

Perhaps relying on a Broncos attack that does only average 17.5 points per game (9th), you can see how the Model might think the Bulldogs keep it close tonight.

However, the 17 points it predicts the Bulldogs will score tonight might be a stretch.

They've only managed 17+ points three times this season while scoring just 14 in the last fortnight. Confidence in Frawley's return to the halves and Jeremy Marshall-King's shift to hooker would have to be high to back the Bulldogs to score much more than their 14.6 points per game (15th) for the season.

With the H2H lacking clear value and plenty of question marks around either team covering the spread, all eyes move to the Over/Under market.

They shouldn't, though.

With only 2% separating the Over and Under probabilities through 10,000 simulations, the Total is a coin flip.

The lean would be to rely on the Bulldogs lack of scoring and side with the Under.

The logic being: we generously give the Bulldogs 10 points which hands the Broncos 29.5 points to work with. Brisbane would have to set a new season-high (currently 27 points) for the total to go over.

It's not foolproof, but what is when it comes to the 2018 NRL season?

So, all of that is said to say this: No Bet.

The Stats Insider Model doesn't particularly like anything in this one.

Brisbane's injuries and very slow rate of improvement have confidence in them waining. Canterbury just isn't very good but did manage to turn it all on three weeks ago to beat North Queensland in Townsville proving anything is possible.

If we're going anywhere, it's the Under. But there will be a number of better options throughout the rest of Round 9.