Footy Forensics: Broncos v Cowboys

Round 1 is always good for overreactions and this year, the Broncos have copped the brunt of them. To put it simply, they were thumped last week.

Every worry the experts had for them in the buildup to the season was evident. The forwards struggled, the halves didn't have an impact and the backline may as well have not turned up.

It was bad.

However, like every footballer on a losing side will tell you: "we will go back to the drawing board and do better next week". Unfortunately for the Broncos, they're drawing up a plan to combat the outright premiership-favourite, the Cowboys.

In need of all the help they can get, the schedule is playing its part.

The Broncos have won 75% of their games at Suncorp Stadium over the last three seasons. It's an out-and-out fortress. But despite Brisbane's favourable record on their home turf, the SI model loves North Queensland H2H in this one.

In 10,000 simulated matches, the visitors come out on top 61% of the time.

With how the two teams played last week, who could argue? The Cowboys - while not playing all that well - never looked like losing.

We all know what happened to the Broncos. Where it gets a little more competitive (and where I'm looking for an edge) is on the Line.

At the time of writing, the Broncos are getting a +3.5 start. The SI model can't split the two sides through 10,000 simulations, but a look back at the Broncos and what went wrong in Round 1 might.

Running for just 1,009 metres last week, the Broncos were constantly on the back foot. Already under plenty of external pressure, Kodi Nikorima and Anthony Milford had next to no chance of having an impact.

For better or worse, both are halves that need room to move and are exceptionally limited in their ability to influence a game if all they can do is throw one-out passes and point out to the forwards where to run.

The forwards need to rumble up the field, and while they are up against one of the NRL's best packs this week, we can anticipate an improvement.

For a start, they won't have Sam Thaiday spending a third of the game at hooker. Andrew McCullough is ready to play for 80 minutes and take some of the pressure off Nikorima and Milford's shoulders.

That in itself has the Broncos pointed in the right direction. With each side filled with representative talent playing in a blockbuster in a primetime slot, we can rely on one thing - Origin references! It's bound to happen, but it might not be without good reason.

While it doesn't like the Broncos Line quite like I do, the model has this game being close - a prerequisite before attributing an "Origin feel" to a game.

A close game bodes well for the Broncos and their +3.5 Line.

We've seen over the last three years how a Suncorp crowd and give their team that extra push. It's one advantage this staked Cowboys team doesn't have this week.

With it, as well as the desperation to avoid a 0-2 start, expect to see a different Broncos team this week.