Footy Forensics: Broncos v Eels

The Broncos are threatening the Top 8 with tonight the perfect opportunity to announce themselves as a team to watch out for at the pointy end of the season.

They've won three of their last four to sit 9th on the ladder with a match against the bottom-placed Eels the sort they can't lose if they're serious about playing finals football.

Lucky for them the Stats Insider Model has them winning, and winning often, in a match that could be circled as the one where the Broncos finally clicked. 

Through 10,000 simulations of Broncos v Eels, the model has the Broncos coming out on top in 59% of matches. 

It may be a surprise given Brisbane's stop-start nature to 2018, but they're starting to pull it together despite a number of injuries slowing them down.

The cavalry is arriving, though.

Jordan Kahu returns from injury this week and will add some consistency to the left centre spot. It's been a carousel of a position all season while Jimmy The Jet destroys and dominates anything in front of him on the right side.

 At $1.44 head-to-head, it's hard to get excited about getting on the Broncos while the -7.5 Line is a big number carrying plenty of scepticism.

The Broncos 'should' cover it with little trouble, but we know better than to assume anything in the NRL this season.

Smarting and playing for their season, the Eels won't be mucking around. They've switched Clint Gutherson to halves and Corey Norman to fullback and while it's unlikely to be the spark that ignites their season, it shows Brad Arthur is willing to try a few things and play a bit ad-lib this week.

While the feeling is the Broncos run away with this one playing at home, the Model is a big fan of the Eels at the Line.

By covering the spread in 61% of the simulated matches, the +7.5 Parramatta Line qualities as an SI value punt this week. 

It's asking a lot of the Eels.

They're undoubtedly the worst team in the competition while the Broncos seem to be putting the pieces of a half-decent footy side together.

The home side is susceptible to an off-night - like we saw against Manly two weeks ago - so Parramatta turning up and running them close isn't the most outrageous idea going around.

However, the model might be off the mark in this one.

At home and on a roll, the Broncos will be ruthless. They aren't going to sit back and expect this win to come to them. Wayne Bennett will have them fired up and ready, just as he did against the Roosters when it seemed like everything and everyone was against them. 

The halves are slowly starting to gel and it's on the back of improved play from the forwards.

Tevita Pangai Junior isn't the only heavy playing well anymore. Joe Ofahenguae has been exceptional recently with Jayden Su'A, Matt Lodge, and even Sam Thaiday starting to find some good form.

The Broncos appear to have too much in the forwards and on the back of that, enough points should come to cover the -7.5.

But again, the Model isn't 100% on board.

In 10,000 simulations of Broncos v Eels, the model has 54% of matches falling Under the 42-point total.

There's a chance that comes in even with the Broncos dominating, but the Eels are capable of scoring in bunches.

If they find one of those bunches while the Broncos also go about the business they're expected to do, the Over is a big factor.

With so much uncertainty around the total, avoid the market entirely. Take on the Line, but think about ignoring the model this time. 

Brisbane is rolling. They're coming good as injuries start to heal and aren't about to take it easy on a side just because they're at the bottom of the ladder. This is a statement game with a big win the only option.

Put your trust in Bennett to have the Broncos ready to put a few on the Eels tonight and cover the -7.5 with relative ease.