Footy Forensics: Broncos v Panthers

It doesn't get much better than Friday night at Suncorp Stadium and for the Broncos, they'll be calling on all the powers of their home ground to get them over the line in this one.

Embarrassed by the Warriors last week, the ponies are all of a sudden at risk of dropping out of the Top 8 should they fail to take the chocolates on Friday.

The Stats Insider Model has some bad news for those north of the border...

It's no surprise the Model is struggling to separate the two on the scoreboard.

The Broncos have shown glimpses of what looks like a legitimate Top 8 side but has been taking one step forward and two steps back all season. Almost being shutout at Suncorp for the first time ever last Sunday was a giant step backwards.

But in comes Tevita Pangai Jr and James Roberts; two key figures for the team on both sides of the ball.

They're enough to have some confidence in the Broncos at $1.84 despite the Model showing 55% of the 10,000 simulations finishing with the Panthers ($2.02) on top.

Both sides have plenty of talent across the field and Suncorp might be a leveller for the Broncos given the Panthers are in better form overall this season.

It really is a coin flip.

However, there's one intangible that needs looking at for both sides: chemistry.

For the Broncos, they're apparently shifting Darius Boyd into the centres, pushing Jordan Kahu to the wing, and slotting Jamayne Isaako in at fullback.

BRONCOS TEAM NEWS: Joe Ofahengaue and Tevita Pangai jnr got through @brisbanebroncos captain’s run and are set to play Panthers. Darius Boyd moves to left centre, Jamayne Isaako to fullback and Jordan Kahu to right wing, via @NRLcom

— Joel Gould (@JoelGould6) July 19, 2018

It's a move that could prove to be a masterstroke by the master coach, or it could blow up in his face like a chemistry experiment gone wrong.

Isaako in his favoured position and Boyd going easy on his hamstrings sounds like a good idea, but will it fire from day one?

The Panthers are also dealing with a rejig to their line up.

Josh Mansour is back after a lengthy spell on the sidelines and will take a few weeks to get back into the swing of things while Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is making an early return from a hamstring injury.

With State of Origin limiting the matches they've played and practices they've attended over the last six weeks, Nathan Cleary, James Maloney and Tyrone Peachey are now with the side full-time.

The first-choice Panthers team hasn't spent a lot of time with each other recently - Maloney, in particular.

James Maloney a confirmed starter for the @PenrithPanthers tomorrow night after recovering from a foot/toe sprain. Injury is to Maloney’s left foot, so shouldn’t affect his kicking game as much as it could have pic.twitter.com/ykrilKFxV0

— NRL PHYSIO (@nrlphysio) July 19, 2018

The Blues halfback hasn't trained at all since Origin III so how quickly he - along with the others making their return to the side - fit back in could make or break them this week.

It's enough to be wary of the Panthers at $2.02 despite the Model's backing.

With the two sides so closely matched, there's not much separating them at the Line.

The Broncos are -1.5 favourites at the time of writing, but the Model is all over the Panthers at +1.5.

It's really not hard to imagine one point being all that separates them after 80 minutes.

If you're going either way at the Line, the Panthers at +1.5 is the way to go. Although, the 64% of matches the Model has them covering seems a little high given the potential issues highlighted above. 

With no clear value jumping out in the Head-to-Head and Handicap markets, the Total offers even less.

The Model can't split the 39.5 Total.

Penrith are a strong defensive outfit conceding just 15.8 points per game.

Brisbane don't hold their line quite so well averaging 21.2 points conceded per game, but it's safe to assume they'll improve on their efforts from last week.

The lean might be towards the Under - just. It's not worth touching, though.

In fact, all the Model suggests getting on is the Panthers at +1.5.

It's definitely the play to make at the Line.

The Broncos have played out some epic's at Suncorp, but tend to end up on the right side of the scoreboard. There's a good chance the +1.5 is enough for the Panthers to cover here.

Taking the Broncos to win at $1.81 is a strong choice too. They have the best home winning percentage (63%) of any team in the competition and something tells me Wayne Bennett has a trick - outside of the backline reshuffle - up his sleeve. 

Regardless of the punt, this game will be worth getting around. 

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