Footy Forensics: Broncos v Raiders

This is an incredibly important clash for both sides.

If the Broncos take the chocolates, they could finish the round six points ahead of ninth to be all but locked into the Top 8.

However, if the Raiders can earn a rare win at Suncorp where they've lost nine of their last ten, the race for finals football will be blown wide open.

At eighth and ninth on the ladder and with the Raiders on the up, there isn't much to split the two sides.

The Stats Insider Model certainly can't separate them with its predicted 17-17 scoreline.

Now, with a prediction like that and the Raiders at $2.31 to win, there appears to be plenty of value in the visitors.

There is a lot to get through in team news before confidently tipping either side, though.

For the Broncos, the 17 they named is set to look a little different with Korbin Sims expected to return from his broken jaw. The bad news is he's likely to be a direct replacement for Tevita Pangai Jr who didn't make it through the captains run without aggravating his rib injury on Friday.

As Brisbane's most consistent forward and one of their hungriest metre-eaters, Pangai Jr is a massive loss.

The Raiders aren't coming into this one 1-17 either.

Jack Wighton pleaded guilty for assault earlier in the week and has been stood down by the club. Brad Abbey is expected to make his club debut in Wighton's place, but it's unclear whether or not that will be on the wing or at fullback.

With the uncertainty around the lineups, the Model's 50/50 split seems about right.

If they were healthy, Brisbane would warrant a strong lean at $1.65 given Canberra's terrible history at Suncorp Stadium. But with the issues the Broncos are facing on the team sheet and the improved form of the Raiders, taking the Green Machine at $2.31 is the head-to-head play.

It's at the Line when the Model starts to direct us towards the value punts.

Covering the +4 spread in 66% of the simulated matches, the Raiders Line qualifies as a one-star bet. 

With Josh Hodgson back, the Raiders look like a different side.

While we only have 46 minutes of playing time as a form guide, it's a lot more encouraging than the Broncos who have been decidedly average for much of the season.

Every time the ponies have shown glimpses of kicking on, they take a backwards step.

Canberra's terrible record in Brisbane is enough to be cautious of them as a head-to-head option, but the +4 Line is a strong alternative.

If it's still proving difficult to side with one over the other, the Model fancies the Under more than anything in this one.

With the Total set at 42.5, the Model has 70% of the simulated matches coming in Under.

There is so much on the line on Saturday night for both clubs that this game could have a finals feel to it.

If it does, the feeling out period extends as teams play the percentages and wait for the other to make mistakes.

There's a good chance that happens here with Hodgson organising the Raiders to the point they can pin the Broncos down in their own end. Meanwhile, the home side will rely on their second-ranked 721 hit up metres per game to get them out of trouble.

It's got arm-wrestle all over it, and that is all we need for the Total to finish Under 42.5 points.

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