Footy Forensics: Bulldogs v Broncos
Last updated: Aug 2, 2018, 6:29AM | Published: Aug 1, 2018, 7:26AM
A week after all but ending the Wests Tigers hopes of making the Top 8, the Bulldogs are out to stop the Broncos and their rise within it this week.
The much-maligned Wayne Bennett has guided the Broncos to yet another finals appearance, but sat at 7th on the ladder just four points from the top, he will have his sights set on a top four spot.
As far as the Stats Insider Model is concerned, the Broncos will get themselves two points closer and up to as high as 5th on Thursday night.
Brisbane has kept the same 17 that ran out in their 12-10 win over the Sharks last week while the Bulldogs have been forced into making a change to their side that upset the Tigers.
David Klemmer has been ruled out due to suspension with Danny Fualalo moving into the starting 13 and Chris Smith making his club debut off the bench.
Without Klemmer and his 174.9 running metres per game (4th in the NRL), the Bulldogs are only winning 37% of the 10,000 simulated matches.
For a side that relies so heavily on its forward pack and the yardage it generates through the middle, Klemmer's absence is massive.
Despite sitting at 13th on the ladder, the Bulldogs are third in running metres with 1,552 metres per game. No other bottom eight side on the ladder features in the top seven for running metres.
However, without packing their usual punch in the centre-third, the Model is still giving the Bulldogs a +9% edge against average market probabilities in the head-to-head market.
The edge continues to grow at the Line with the Bulldogs covering the +8.5 spread in 60% of the simulated matches.
That +8.5 Line jumps out for an effort team like the Bulldogs even before considering the +10% edge the Model has identified.
It's no secret they are short on talent given how poorly their salary cap has been managed. But there are players on the team sheet that play above themselves every week.
The Morris brothers have made a career of it. Lachlan Lewis looks as though he will do the same. And then there's Josh Jackson - the ultimate Bulldog.
It's those effort players that have seen the Bulldogs take possession of the third-lowest average losing margin at 9.6 points.
The talent the Broncos have across the park is far superior and can't be ignored.
Tevita Pangai Jr regularly causes havoc wherever he plays while Matt Lodge and Josh McGuire bend the line through the middle every week.
The pack has been travelling so well, detractors of the Anthony Milford/Kodi Nikorima halves combination that has scored or assisted on more tries than any other pairing (13) over the last five weeks, have gone silent.
Bennett has his boys firing, and it's enough to put some doubt into the Bulldogs and their +8.5 Line.
Those firing Broncos might be all we need for the Total to go over 39.5 points, though.
While the two teams haven't been piling up the points every week, they've been letting them in fairly consistently all season.
The Broncos are ninth in defence conceding 20.4 points per a game with the Bulldogs a spot ahead conceding 19.9 points per game.
There has been an improvement to Brisbane's defence. They've only conceded 13.7 points throughout July. But their attack that has come leaps out bounds should be enough to make up the difference to send this one Over 39.5 points.
It's the Over alongside the Bulldogs head-to-head that the Model directs us towards for this one.
The Bulldogs +8.5 Line deserves a look, but this is one to trust the model on and side with the smileys.
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