Footy Forensics: Bulldogs v Dragons

Monday Night Football makes a rare appearance to end Round 14, and it acts as the perfect opportunity for the Dragons to finally put the nightmares of 2017 to bed.

The Red V played out one of the all-time great collapses to miss out on the Top 8 last season. In the end, it was the Bulldogs who hit the final nail into the coffin in Round 26.

Now second on the ladder and starting to wobble, the Dragons need to put the Bulldogs away and end the idea of another capitulation once and for all. 

The Stats Insider Model like the Dragons to get the job done.

The Dragons are in a great position to take the chocolates so it's no surprise to see the Model spitting out a win.

Tuesday's team list announcement remained the same as it has done all season with the 13 players used to start every match so far being sent out for kick off in this one. 

With the continuity they have in the team list, the disruption of being without their Origin stars at training for the last fortnight is unlikely to have much of an impact on their performance.

The scoreline might strike a few people by surprise, but the Bulldogs deserve a bit of credit for their last six weeks.

Decent performances haven't translated into wins so they're flying under the radar. Coming off close losses to the Panthers, Broncos, Sharks and Tigers ahead of the bye, there's value in the Bulldogs here at $3.

Through 10,000 simulations, the Model has punters cashing in on that $3 in 42% of the matches.

However, there are a couple of changes to the team list that might disrupt the relatively strong patch in form the Bulldogs have at the moment.

Kieran Foran is out with a toe injury with Michael Lichaa getting another chance in first-grade. He's slotting in at hooker with Jeremy Marshall-King back into the halves.

There's a reason Lichaa was dropped in the first place and Marshall-King did nothing to excite during his time in the halves to start the season.

In the more positive news, Aiden Tolman returns from injury to give them another big body in the middle to further shore-up the defence.

It's that defence offers up some value in the Under.

The Bulldogs are an awful attacking side to sit 15th in scoring at 15.3 points per game.

It's through their defence that allows just 19.8 points per game that allows them to stay in it.

As a result, their games tend to be low scoring with eight of their 12 games so far this season finishing Under the 38-point total.

With a slight lean at 55%, the Model has the Bulldogs playing out their ninth game Under the total in this one.

It's at the Line we find the most value, though.

The Bulldogs cover the +6.5 Line in 61% of the simulated matches with the Model highlighting it as a value punt to end the round.

Relying on the Bulldogs to do anything isn't the most comfortable place for a punter to sit, but there's plenty there to keep this one close.

The Canterbury pack is good enough to compete with the St George middles to at least slow down their competition-leading 25.1 points per game. 

David Klemmer is backing up from Origin, Josh Jackson and Aaron Woods were with the Blues last season, and Raymond Faitala-Mariner is having a career year.

The pack isn't the problem for the Bulldogs.

Without having the backline to even come close to the Dragons, the Bulldogs don't have enough points in them to win. However, their scrappy nature and slight mental advantage given what they did to the Dragons last season justifies the Models confidence in the +6.5 Line.