Footy Forensics: Bulldogs v Raiders

Round 17 has been impossible to predict so far and when you've got the Bulldogs v Raiders coming up next, it only gets harder.

When you look at the two teams and their form coming into this one, it's a lottery.

As they've both proven at times this season - for better or worse - anything can happen. Given that, it's no surprise the result the Stats Insider Model has spat out is a nail-biter.

The Model has the Raiders winning by just one point. To anybody that has watched them this season, alarm bells are ringing.

"If there's one point in it towards the end of the game, the Raiders are losing."

That could very well be the case. 

Through 10,000 simulations of Bulldogs v Raiders, the Model has the boys from Belmore winning 48% of the matches. That's a staggering number for a side sitting 14th on the ladder with undoubtedly the bleakest future of any side in the NRL.

Such is the lack of confidence in the Raiders to play well enough over 80 minutes to beat anybody, a Bulldogs upset isn't out of the question.

Their $2.91 price screams value following their impressive 36-16 win over the Knights in Newcastle last week. 

Neither side is too affected by State of Origin; David Klemmer and Josh Papalii's absence cancel each other out.

The Raiders pack has a decent advantage, but the question marks over their halves and the all-around inability of the team to be switched on from siren to siren are a genuine cause for concern. Canberra's incapacity to hold leads has become a significant mental burden that you could see taking it's toll as Brisbane began to mount their comeback last week. It's not something that can be ignored just because they are playing a wooden spoon contender.

The Bulldogs, on the other hand, can play out the rest of 2018 relatively stressfree. 

Nobody, not even their own fans, expect them to be a relevant player towards the end of the season. Or the next, for that matter. They can chance their arm and throw the footy around. Their low expectations make them dangerous, especially to an abject side like the Raiders.

With Canterbury's lack of points, backing them to win is a big ask despite the value on offer. For all of Canberra's faults late in a game, they know how to find the line before capitulating.

However, the Bulldogs +6.5 Line is an attractive proposition and one the Model loves.

By covering the Line in 70% of the 10,000 simulations, the Bulldogs at +6.5 qualities as an SI value punt.

Even before seeing the Model's adoration for the Bulldogs Line, the +6.5 jumped right out.

Aaron Woods and Moses Mbye may no longer be there, but the Bulldogs still have the systems in place defensively to keep it close. It's been a trait of theirs for years and with their backs against the wall given the position the club is in, it's safe to assume they go back to what they know best and aim up in defence.

Historical results can often be overvalued, but it's worth mentioning that the Raiders have only won three of their 17 games at Belmore. For the most part this season, these sort of hoodoo's have stuck.

When it comes to the Over/Under market, the Model isn't convinced of anything with only a 2% split.

There's nothing about the 41.5 Total that leans one way or the other. 

As one of the better attacking teams in the competition, the Raiders should find the line. And despite struggling to keep up with them in the shootout, the Bulldogs do have a couple of tries in them if they adopt the brand of footy they ran out last week.

It's not a market worth touching here, especially when the Model is pointing out two value punts for this one.

The Model loves the Bulldogs head-to-head and at the +6.5 Line here.

At $2.90, Bulldogs to win is worth a shout. The enthusiasm will be there and if they can build some early pressure, trigger those doubts, and get into the heads of the Green Machine, an upset is on the cards.

Taking them at the Line is the way to go, though.

Back them to keep is close and trust the Model and 70% of its 10,000 simulations.

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