Footy Forensics - Cowboys v Raiders

It still doesn't look right seeing the Cowboys languishing way down at 15th on the ladder. Expected to be premiership contenders - if not favourites - North Queensland has fallen well below expectations to start the season.

Similarly, Canberra isn't the Top 8 side many claimed they would be. Wins over the Eels and Bulldogs do nothing to wipe the four consecutive losses they opened the season with from our memory.

This game wreaks of desperation with neither side is in a position to drop their sixth match of the year just eight weeks in. Without a draw in the NRL since 2016, somebody is more than likely going to lose on Saturday night with the Stats Insider Model tipping the Raiders to be the ones going home empty-handed.

The Model leans heavily towards the Cowboys H2H and with good reason. The Raiders haven't won any of their last nine games in Townsville dating back to August 2007 while their form in 2018 doesn't suggest they'll buck the trend on Saturday night.

Dominated by a monster Rabbitohs pack last week, it's hard to talk yourself into thinking they can compete against a just as dominant Cowboys pack - when they're at their best.

While taking the Raiders H2H is out of the question, the +7.5 Line gets some love. The Model has the Raiders covering the spread in 55% of the 10,000 simulated matches.

Given the inconsistency of the two sides, taking either at the Line is risky business.

The Cowboys have the cattle to dominate and put plenty of points on the Raiders, however, they've not produced anything close to what they're capable of yet this season.

Trusting the Raiders to do anything well over the course of 80 minutes isn't the best way to invest your hard earned after a long week, either. Even when they play well and look to be heading down the right track, they've shown a tendency to fade, particularly late in matches.

The Model may side with the Raiders +7.5, but I can't get behind it.

If there's anything to back with any confidence in this one, it's the Under.

Desperation brings out the best defence in a side and given both are in the top-five for points conceded, we know exactly what Paul Green and Ricky Stuart will have been preaching all week.

There aren't many instances where you can say somebody "cancels out Jason Taumalolo", but the 112kg Josh Papalii has the rig to slow him down and limit North Queensland's most dangerous weapon. With Taumalolo contained, the likes of Johnathan Thurston and Michael Morgan can't get downhill and create points like they otherwise could have.

It's not to say the Raiders will control the match to the point they win, but the Cowboys aren't looking like they'll rack up a score when you compare their recent form alongside the matchups this week.

When it comes to punting plays, it's the Under at 42.5 points that carries the value according to the SI Punting Predictions.

Just like Thursday night in Dragons v Roosters, this one is a trust exercise.

Play with what you know, which in this case, isn't much.

The two teams look different every week with the only thing we can rely on being some desperate defence resulting in a low-scoring match.

Avoid the Raiders, and leave the Cowboys Line to the optimistic punter. Follow the value, celebrate covering tackles, and side with the Under.