Footy Forensics: Cowboys v Storm

With only one win in 11 matches so far, the Cowboys are playing for their season.

A loss this week will see the pen go straight through their name on the list of potential finals teams if it hasn't for anybody already.

Unfortunately for those in North Queensland, the Stats Insider Model suggests it might be best to start preparing for the worst.

From 10,000 simulations of Cowboys v Storm, the Model has spat out a four-point win for the visitors.

That would be the end of them.

Finals: Cowboys.

Melbourne is getting a decent head-to-head price in this one at $1.81.

Billy Slater being ruled out will have plenty to do with it, but perhaps it's more due to them playing out one of the most un-Storm-like performances without Cameron Smith last week.

Errors, penalties and punch-ups; they certainly didn't look like the clinical side of 2017 and throughout brief moments in 2018.

Smith does return this week with Jesse Bromwich also coming back from injury to start in the front row. Those two big In's will be a large reason why the Model has the Storm winning 55% of the simulated matches.

The Model has a small favourite in the head-to-head market, but it can't split them at the Line.

Nothing separates the Model's results, however, the Storm -1.5 might deserve the slightest of leans.

It's difficult to have confidence in the Cowboys given how they're tracking heading into this one.

Michael Morgan has been grossly out of form, although, he has been better since switching to fullback.

Johnathan Thurston, while still a great footballer, isn't what he used to be. He can no longer flick a switch and decide to single-handily win a game like he could in his prime.

Matt Scott hasn't packed his usual punch since returning from his ACL injury and is now nursing an MCL injury heading into this one. He's been named to start but it seems unlikely.

The injuries go further into the forward pack with Jordan McLean and John Asiata still out injured with a return date yet to be pencilled in.

Even with Jason Taumalolo, the Cowboys pack looks set to struggle in this one; he can only do so much. Playing alongside an injured Scott, an out of form Coen Hess, and a string of good - but not great - forwards, it's hard to see Taumalolo and the Cowboys out-muscling a representative-laden Storm pack tonight. 

Once they're beaten in the middle, Thurston and Morgan don't have enough in them with the way they're playing of late to get past the Storm.

The -1.5 is the way to go if getting on the Line.

There isn't much more confidence coming out of the SI Model when it comes to the Total market either.

North Queensland's desperation will be enough to put a lid on Melbourne's scoring to see the Total finish right around that 38.5 mark.

The Over relies on the Cowboys adding a considerable number to their 16.8 points per game average while the Storm hasn't looked themselves in attack for weeks.

Celebrate defence and back the Under here, but not too hard. 

In fact, the Model doesn't like anything enough to warrant a value punt.

There's enough uncertainty with the Cowboys that you can't entirely rule them out head-to-head even when considering the fact they've lost their last seven games against the Storm.

Their +1.5 Line isn't big enough to back with confidence with the Under looking like the best bet in this one.

North Queensland are playing for their season while Melbourne is trying to rebuild its reputation following an uncharacteristic few weeks. 

At different ends of the desperation spectrum, it should still result in a stingy defensive effort from both sides.